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Who are the Syrian Rebels?

syria rebels
Raging since early 2011, the civil war in Syria has left many wondering who will obtain the reins of power in the war torn nation. Will the rebel forces topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime, creating a power vacuum? Or will Assad maintain control?

These questions lie at the heart of what policymakers consider when sending aid to rebel forces who have managed to continue their three year war against the Assad regime with minimal support from the West.

One of the questions that has been most pertinent to American policymakers is who exactly are the rebels and to what extent are there Islamist extremists in their ranks.

Politifact points out politicians on both sides of the aisle, advocating both for and against aid to the Syrian rebels, who use questionable sources to justify the numbers of radical or moderate elements among the rebel forces.

For example, Senator John McCain has been a vocal proponent of aid to the rebels and has stated that close to 70 percent of the rebels are still moderate. When pressed on his certainty of where the rebels stand, McCain simply stated he visited the war torn country and through his visit, gained an understanding as to the leanings of the rebel forces.

Others such as IHS Jane’s, a British intelligence analysis agency, have estimated the radical element composes half of the 100,000 opposition fighters. Their conclusion is based off interviews and intelligence estimates that are extremely difficult to confirm.

Many have turned to social media to examine the political leanings of the rebels.

Caerus, a strategy firm that examines Syrian governance for government clients, examines major internet platforms such as YouTube to glean data about the rebels. They claim through examining social media, very reliable data can be constructed giving a better understanding of the ideological makeup of opposition fighters.

For example, the Free Syrian Army has a hefty YouTube footprint of over seven YouTube channels. Other rebel groups are active Facebook and Twitter users, posting propaganda sympathetic to their cause.

Unfortunately, David Kilcullen, CEO of Caerus, as well as many government officials have concluded that moderate opposition forces are losing influence to radical Islamist sects within the rebel forces.

The perception of Islamist elements among the rebels gaining ground has led some officials to suggest that Assad staying in power would be the best outcome for the protracted civil war. The Christian Science Monitor quotes Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Damascus, predicting Assad’s eventual victory in Syria.

He states, “And do we really want the alternative–a major country in the heart of the Arab world in the hands of Al-Qaeda?”

The different factions of moderates versus Islamist hardliners have contributed to the propagation of the Assad regime. Their incoordination among each other has prevented a cohesive strategy from forming against Assad.  And the radicalization of many forces has blocked the flow of foreign aid from countries unwilling to potentially support Al-Qaeda linked forces.

While many officials are now leaning toward the continuation of the Assad regime as the best outcome for the war, others have argued that the brutal tactics perpetrated by the regime was the main cause for their radicalization in the first place, and the failure by the west to adequately fund the rebel forces have led them toward radical ideals in an attempt to secure funding from wealthy Arab nations.

Now close to three years old, the Syrian conflict shows no signs of letting up and rebel groups no closer to toppling the Assad regime.

– Zack Lindberg

Sources: NPR, The Christian Science Monitor, Politifact
Photo: Giphy.com

Ivorian Refugees in Liberia

An election crisis, a civil war and numerous human rights violations have sent thousands of Ivorians fleeing into Liberia. Since 2010, thousands of refugees have left the embattled Ivory Coast for other countries to escape political violence and abuse. These refugees have found reception in Liberia since they were displaced by the political crisis and those still displaced are eager to return home and begin reconciliation and the rebuilding of lives.

The Ivorian crisis began at the end of 2010 following the contested presidential election which was supposed to occur in 2005, but had been postponed for nearly five years. The election caused months of instability, abuse and outbreaks of violence in the country. The chaos that emerged from the election meltdown left hundreds dead and thousands displaced from their homes.

By the end of July 2011, the numbers of refugees fleeing the Ivory Coast exceeded more than 400,000 people who remained displaced from their home. This figure accounts for those displaced either within the Ivory Coast or within neighboring countries. Most who fled went to Liberia where about 171,000 refugees were housed within hosting communities and in camps. As of November, the Republic of Liberia had 57,724 registered refugees coupled with a national statistic of 19,964 households for perspective.

As of July, more than 10,000 Ivorians have returned home from Liberia with help from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR); this figure is almost double the figure for the whole of 2012. The limited resources of the Liberian government and the needs of Liberian citizens only one reason is why remaining a refugee in Liberia is unsustainable. Those who are displaced deserve the right to return home and return to their lives.

The road home for many Ivorian refugees had begun with the assistance of the United Nations.

The U.N. refugee agency working in collaboration with the Liberia Refugee Repatriation and Resettlement Commission and other partners, has been organizing road convoys for those seeking to return home. More than two years after fleeing post-election violence in Côte d’Ivoire means much has changed and much has been lost. The progression out of war into peace begins with a redress of rights and the return of those displaced.

This year has seen success in repatriation of Ivorian refugees. “Last year, we facilitated the repatriation of more than 6,000 refugees. For this year, our planning figure is to facilitate the repatriation of 16,000 refugees,” said UNHCR Officer-in-Charge Andrew Mbogori while thanking donors for their support of the  repatriation efforts.

“With 10,000 refugees repatriated over the past seven months, notwithstanding border security concerns a few months ago, we are definitely on track to attain our target,” he added.

The repatriation process has been interrupted by violent attacks on villages on the Ivorian side of the border. Border security has been a high U.N. concern as physically crossing borders safely back home is the goal of repatriation. Improvements in security have encouraged more people to return home and more security is still needed.

Besides the physical barriers of dangerous border crossings, refugees are also at the whim of nature and seasonal rains. These challenges have brought together aid agencies to enact road rehabilitation services which can guarantee passage and be maintained by security forces.

Once they have successfully returned to Côte d’Ivoire, former refugees will receive a cash grant, food and essential non-food items.

There are still remaining refugees waiting to return. There is still much to be done, and further security required providing the necessary platform for successful peace building endeavors. Security can only truly be reached when all parties participate and when aid organizations are able to freely operate within the application of restorative justice.

– Nina Verfaillie
Feature Writer

Sources: Oxfam International, UNHCR, The UN Refugee Agency
Photo: National Geographic

 

Tailor of the Refugee Camps

The civil war in Syria is entering its third year, having displaced more than 3 million people. Most of these people leave all of their belongings behind, fleeing the country without crucial resources. Refugees find themselves entirely dependent on others, relying on the UN Refugee Agency, foreign governments, and other aid organizations to survive without employment or permanent housing.

While the prospects in refugee camps may seem bleak, some Syrian refugees have managed to attain financial independence by utilizing particular skills. Diar*, a young man who arrived at Iraq’s Domiz Camp last July, opened a tailor shop that served refugees and the surrounding community. He ran his own tailor shop for years in Damascus, helping his younger siblings go to school with his income.

When two explosions forced him to leave Syria and abandon his shop, Diar decided to bring his pressing machine with him in case he could use it as a source of income.

As one of more than 90,000 Syrian refugees living in the Kurdish region of Iraq and 31,000 living in Domiz alone, Diar recognized a potential market and used his family’s small camp space to create a new tailor shop.

With upfront help from the UNHCR, which provided him with the initial electricity and space to operate his business, Diar has managed to gain a loyal following. His customers laud his shop for its “quality and better service,” claiming that Diar has better prices than do businesses outside of the camp. Diar has also gained customers native to the region because of his competitive prices and good service.

Diar’s tailor shop may seem like an anomaly within the atmosphere of a refugee camp, but he is one of many business owners who have contributed to the camp economy in Domiz. Small-scale businesses are helping to reduce the demands on aid organizations by providing services for affordable prices. The businesses also help ensure that refugees do not lose their sense of autonomy after being forced from their own country.

While it is costly for the UNHCR to administer refugee camps, entrepreneurs are lessening the burden, using the help they receive from aid organizations to give back to their new communities.

* Name has been changed.

– Katie Bandera

Source: UNHCR The Guardian
Photo: The Guardian

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Civil War and Economy in Sierra Leone

Economy in Sierra Leone
The Sierra Leone civil war destroyed the national economy, making it one of the poorest countries in the world. The civil war that ravaged the small west African nation from 1991-2002 was the impetus for a huge displacement of people within Sierra Leone, leading to a downturn in the economy that left almost 75% of the population living in extreme poverty.

Sierra Leone’s main export is diamonds. Diamonds have created a significant wealth gap in Sierra Leone that has benefited the rich and paralyzed the poor for decades. The country’s dependence on this single mineral resource impedes economic growth. In order for Sierra Leone to lift itself out of abject poverty, the economy must diversify. Economic diversification is exceptionally difficult, however, with around 50% of the adult working population working in subsistence agriculture. Luckily, the IMF set up a program in 2010 to deliver $45 million to Sierra Leone through 2013.

Over the last few years, Sierra Leone has developed its offshore oil resources as another source of income. This, however, does not negate the enormous need for international aid to power the development process and prevent increased in inequalit in Sierra Leone. In order for the economy to stabilize, foreign aid must be delivered on a consistent basis and domestic peace must be preserved at all costs.

– Josh Forgét
Source: BBC News, Rural Poverty Portal, CIA World Factbook
Photo: Human Trafficking Movie Project

The Future for South Sudan

The Future for South Sudan
A year ago, Sudan and South Sudan were on the brink of war, but this month a deal between the two countries was finally implemented, allowing production in South Sudan’s main oil field to resume. This region, the Palouge oil field, accounts for 80% of the country’s oil production and has not been operational for 16 months due to disputes regarding the export of the oil.

This resumption of operations marks a significant moment in South Sudan’s brief history. Since its independence two years ago, the nation has suffered dramatic setbacks to its economy. The fledgling nation’s GDP contracted by 52% last year alone, while government revenues from oil-backed loans were cut by 98%. Now, however, with a pipeline deal in place with the north, South Sudan will be able to ramp up production to pre-independence levels.

After the drastic cuts in expenditure necessitated by the cessation of oil production during the last two years, this influx of revenue should significantly boost the country’s economy. South Sudan will have to diversify away from oil as the primary revenue generator over the next few years as reserves disappear, however, for now, the hope remains that oil profits will allow this nascent economy to establish itself. A stable economic platform marks the first steps in allowing the country and its people to grow.

– David Wilson

Sources: The Economist
Photo: Royal African Society

Half of Syria Will Be in Need of Aid, Says UN

Half of Syria Will Be in Need of Aid, Says UN
According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, nearly half of the population of Syria will be in need of foreign aid by the end of 2013. With nearly 8,000 people per day leaving the country with no sign of impending political compromise or end to the fighting, the UN estimates that there will be 3.5 million refugees by the end of the year, and 10 million in dire need of aid – with half of those being children.

The commissioner claimed that although he has been involved with long civil wars in the past, including refugee situations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the current crisis in Syria is the most serious he has ever seen, calling it “the worst humanitarian disaster since the end of the cold war.”

The situation is being compounded by already-low levels of foreign aid to organizations working to bring relief to refugees in the area. Unicef reported being underfunded by 70%, and the commissioner stated that foreign powers are unable to provide aid due to current economic conditions.

Besides the Syrian refugees who have fled the country for bordering nations, nearly three million Syrians remain displaced within the country’s borders and thus have very few opportunities for providing basic necessities, like consistent food and clean water – not to mention access to electricity.

The commissioner also noted the geopolitical implications of the Syrian civil war, saying that the stress placed on neighboring nations Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq are very serious, saying “it’s the most dangerous of all crises.”

– Christina Kindlon

Source: Guardian