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The Second Term of Nayib Bukele: Impact on El Salvador

Nayib BukeleEl Salvador does not have a long and glorious history of political stability. Over the past five years, Nayib Bukele and his “Nuevas Ideas” Party have managed to massively reduce both violent crime rates and emigration abroad. His landslide re-election on February 4, 2024, was officially confirmed as a supermajority on February 19 following a hand count, which is unsurprising.

Security Policy

Domestic security was a significant plank on Bukele’s re-election campaign platform. The reduction of violent crime in the country has been startling. So, too, are the numbers behind it: 76,000 Salvadorans have been jailed, around 1% of the country’s population. The vast majority have been incarcerated without due process.

The suspension of civil liberties in March 2022 allowed the Bukele administration to move quickly and efficiently. This crackdown has been, it seems, almost universally popular in a country that was, until recently, considered one of the world’s most dangerous and arguably was the most significant factor in Bukele’s landslide re-election.

However, behind the overwhelming public support, key voices have called these policies unsustainable and unlawful. Human rights groups have highlighted instances of both torture and death in custody (218 deaths). The United States (U.S.), El Salvador’s largest trading partner, has raised concerns about human rights violations. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has put its mooted billion-dollar bailout on pause due to, among other factors, Bukele’s “State of Exception.”

Economic Policy

One of those above “other factors” has been Bukele’s attempt (beginning in late 2021) to introduce cryptocurrency as El Salvador’s principal form of money, replacing U.S. dollars. During his first term, Bukele used his preferred choice of communication, social media, to drum up investment for his plan to turn the country into a cryptocurrency haven.

However, through the bluster and rhetoric, it is clear that El Salvador will still rely on its ties to foreign investors and trading partners. Hesitation by the U.S. to continue its aid program ($629 million between 2019 and 2022) due to fears over the increasingly undemocratic direction the country was heading has led Bukele to start a high-wire policy of cozying up to China. This brinkmanship has resulted in closer diplomatic ties with the U.S., with both superpowers competing for influence in the region.

Since 2019, the start of the first term of Nayib Bukele, extreme poverty has doubled and El Salvador’s national debt stands at a record high of $25 billion. Most foreign investors see the cryptocurrency dream as risky to gamble on. Bukele’s desire to minimize U.S. influence in El Salvador is historically understandable. However, the more reckless and authoritarian his policies become, the less inclined he will be to help the U.S. or the IMF.

The Election

Bukele’s supermajority is confirmed, winning 54 of 60 seats. The hand count revealed irregularities in the electronic voting system. Opposition parties have raised concerns over fraud, manipulation and intimidation at various points in the electoral process. However, it is doubtful that these concerns will be followed up on.

The election of Nayib Bukele to the office of President for a second term was unconstitutional until the rule on second terms was scrapped. One of the many issues with his re-election from a democratic perspective is that Bukele will have unprecedented power (even more so than in his first term) to change the constitution. In many ways, the “world’s coolest dictator” has followed the classic authoritarian playbook and many believe he will continue to do so.

Final Remark

A combination of authoritarian security policies and reckless economic decisions have left El Salvador in a precarious position. However, the next few years will reveal how foreign aid to the country can best be spread around to foster stability.

The potential for a more democratic path to stability in El Salvador exists if the U.S. strategically influences the situation through judicious financial measures rather than the old-school method of going in all guns blazing.

– Rory Giles
Photo: Flickr

Understanding the Complex Outcomes of El Salvador’s Gang Crackdown

El Salvador's Gang Crackdown
Over the past year, El Salvador has undergone a significant transformation from being known as the homicide capital of the world. The country was once plagued by the MS-13 and 18th Street gangs, whose activities forced residents to abide by their rules. Homicides and extortion payments to these gangs were common for decades. However, in March 2022, after a two-day spike of more than 70 killings, President Nayib Bukele declared a state of emergency. As a part of El Salvador’s effort to combat gang violence, a drastic measure was taken to temporarily suspend certain constitutional rights. The aim of this measure was to permanently remove gang members from communities. More than 66,000 individuals were imprisoned by the government during the crackdown on gangs. El Salvador has the world’s highest incarceration rate globally, with approximately 1% of its population behind bars.

Impact on Community

Since El Salvador’s gang crackdown, the gangs that controlled cities for years have almost entirely disappeared. Since the removal of the MS-13 and 18th Street gang members, individuals no longer have to pay regular extortion payments or tolls. These payments exacerbated poverty in gang-controlled territories. Although poverty has decreased by about 20% in the past decade, 30% of Salvadorans live under the poverty line.

Criminal activity has decreased significantly. The crackdown has disrupted the operations and networks of gangs and even dismantled some of their structures. Several gang leaders and members have been arrested or killed, and this has significantly impacted the frequency of criminal activities. Public safety has increased greatly since the start of El Salvador’s gang crackdown. People feel much safer walking the streets, businesses can operate without constraints from gangs and communities have regained some sense of security. The nation has not had a homicide at the national level for more than one year.

El Salvador’s successful crackdown on gang violence has inspired neighboring countries, including Honduras, which also grapples with significant gang-related issues. El Salvador’s achievements serve as inspiration for these countries to take similar decisive measures to combat gang violence.

Human Rights Concerns

Although El Salvador’s crackdown was extremely effective in removing gang members from communities, it is important to acknowledge that during this process, the police also arrested a considerable number of innocent individuals. While there have been efforts to release those wrongly imprisoned, many believe that there are still thousands of unjustly convicted people. The suspension of constitutional rights calls for concern because those convicted do not have the right to a trial. This situation highlights the need for a balanced approach to addressing gang violence while safeguarding the human rights of all individuals.

Expanding Education Opportunities

Gang presence has had a major negative impact on El Salvador’s education system. The poor education system is a major driver of the country’s high poverty rate. Only 11% of Salvadorans have received more than 13 years of education. Within the prison system, more than 90% of those incarcerated did not finish high school, reflecting the limited access to education opportunities in El Salvador.

In order to increase the youth population’s access to education, the Bukele government has introduced CUBOS, or “Urban Centers for Welfare and Opportunities,” in impoverished communities. The goal of these centers is to provide young people with a space where they have academic support and access to technology and other resources.

Additionally, the Education Quality Improvement Project aims to improve lower secondary and upper secondary education rates in the public school system as well as expand access to education.

The El Salvadoran government and international organizations are working together to create a long-term strategy to increase the national education rate, which could also decrease the high poverty rate.

–  Surya Patil
Photo: Flickr

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COVID-19 and the Impoverished in El Salvador

impoverished in El SalvadorEl Salvador implemented a strong response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, it has one of the lowest rates of COVID-19 contractions in Central America. Still, there have been several economic depressions globally during this pandemic that have affected the impoverished in El Salvador.

The COVID-19 Pandemic

As of July 23, 2021, El Salvador has had 84,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 2,500 deaths. On April 1, 2020, President Nayib Bukele confirmed the first COVID-related death over Twitter. The victim was a 60-year-old woman who had recently returned from the United States.

This lockdown has had major ramifications for the impoverished in El Salvador. In an interview with The Borgen Project, San Salvador resident Wendy Michelle Valladares-Hernandez discussed the economic implications for the poor. “I think [the pandemic] has affected…people with entry-level [salaries] which is the majority of El Salvador,” she said. “Entry-level salaries are $300 and things can be as expensive as the U.S. so it’s like telling someone in the U.S. to live with $300 a month. It can be a lot cheaper, like housing but when it comes to food it’s very similar [to] the States.”

Despite this, Valladares-Hernandez described the pandemic procedures positively. “I think that as a country we responded very well,” she said. “The fact that we are all trying to help each other in the sense that we, you know, take care of ourselves, to take care of everyone else around us. I think that’s the reason everyone wears masks when they go out and everyone’s okay by having your temperature checked every single place you go in and cleaning yourself with alcohol every single time you go in.”

El Salvador’s Economy

The U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that the Salvadoran economy contracted 8.6% in 2020, compared to an expansion of 2.6% in 2019. The country has not seen such a loss since 1981 during a civil war. Additionally, El Salvador was the first country to introduce Bitcoin as legal tender. While it is a notable milestone, there are uncertain benefits for the impoverished in El Salvador. The country has a mostly cash-based economy and more than 70% of its citizens do not have bank accounts. It has sparked protests and a poll found that 77% of Salvadorans think Bitcoin is a poor idea.

El Salvador’s Healthcare Services

The organization Doctors Without Borders has recorded an increase in patients dying before ambulances reach their homes. The COVID-19 pandemic has overloaded the ambulance and hospital systems and there is a lack of access to primary healthcare services. Many patients with chronic illnesses do not have full access to medical assistance because coronavirus patients have received medicinal priority.

This has especially affected the impoverished in El Salvador. The U.S. embassy in El Salvador has found that the use of state-of-the-art technology can require medical evacuation to the United States, but even general hospitalization can cost thousands of dollars, often in cash payments. This leaves medical assistance often unaffordable to many, considering the country’s minimum wage is around $270 per month.

The Solutions

El Salvador’s government has already approved a minimum wage increase that went into effect on August 1, 2021. The minimum wage increased by 20%, bringing the entry-level wage from $300 to $365 a month per month. On top of that, the government has announced the Trust for the Economic Recovery of Companies. This Trust has offered to provide $100 million towards small- and medium-scale businesses to subsidize wages and promote the economy. The ECLAC has estimated that El Salvador will see economic growth of 3.5% in 2021 due to private and public investment.

Bukele, in response to the overwhelmed healthcare system, converted the International Center for Fairs and Conventions (CIFCO) into a hospital designed specifically for COVID-19 treatment. The hospital is now the largest hospital in Central America, costing more than $75 million to produce. Originally, the transformed center was to be temporary, however, it will now be a permanent fixture.

The hospital has the capacity to treat more than 400 individuals with COVID-19. The economy hit those who are impoverished in El Salvador hard. Additionally, they often cannot afford to pay or seek medical assistance. The Ministry of Health (MSPAS) offers a free public healthcare system that covers up to 79.5% of Salvadorans in their time of need.

Looking Forward

On July 21, 2021, Bradley A. Freden, the Interim Permanent Representative of the United States, attended an OAS Permanent Council Special Session on equitable COVID-19 vaccine distribution. There, he reiterated President Joe Biden’s announcement to contribute $2 billion in support of COVAX. Soon, 24 million vaccinations will undergo distribution across the Western Hemisphere, including to El Salvador. This contribution will greatly help the vaccination goals of El Salvador, which should be able to vaccinate 4.5 million citizens.

“Importantly, our shots don’t come with strings attached,” said Freden. “We are sharing vaccines with the world and leading in a global vaccine strategy because it’s the right thing to do: the right thing morally, the right thing from a global public health perspective and the right thing for our collective security and well-being.”

Citizens of El Salvador look forward to returning to normal, though some believe that those who are sick should continue to use masks. Valladares-Hernandez remarked, “I think that there’s gonna be things that are gonna get stuck with us. For example, even if someone has a small flu, people are still going to be wearing masks. I think that’s something we are going to do once this goes away.”

– Camdyn Knox
Photo: Pixabay

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USAID Shifts to Direct Aid in El Salvador

direct aid in El Salvador
On May 1, 2021, the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador removed the nation’s attorney general and all members of its Supreme Court. This sudden action sparked concern regarding the separation of powers in El Salvador’s government, with human rights organizations viewing it as a power grab by the country’s president, Nayib Bukele. USAID acted on the concerns by pulling all foreign aid funding previously dispersed through the Salvadoran government. The funding is now promised as direct aid to El Salvador’s civil society groups. Direct aid in El Salvador will ensure the most vulnerable El Salvadorans receive the help needed.

USAID Projects in El Salvador

USAID’s most recent foreign aid projects in El Salvador are designed to address the root causes of migration from Latin America to the United States. In January 2021, President Biden issued an executive order that set aside $4 billion to address immigration from the Northern Triangle countries: El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The order states that improving livelihoods in these countries eliminates the need for migrants to flee to the United States. In May 2021, USAID launched an official Northern Triangle Task Force. The task force laid out a strategy for improving livelihoods by targeting three areas:

  1. Prosperity – USAID will fund economic development to prevent poverty in El Salvador. This strategy includes improving infrastructure, investing in higher-value industries to create job opportunities and fostering entrepreneurship. The Salvadoran organizations receiving aid to implement these programs are primarily private sector actors.
  2. Security – USAID will target crime and corruption as another root cause of migration. This strategy includes increasing government transparency and making justice systems more responsive to citizens’ needs. Originally, the governmental National Civil Police and Institute for Access to Public Information were involved with the implementation of USAID projects related to this target. However, the shift to direct aid requires non-governmental organizations in El Salvador to replace government actors.
  3. Governance – USAID aims to make governments in the Northern Triangle more effective at responding to citizens needs. This strategy includes increasing accountability for government spending, improving government delivery of services and promoting citizen engagement with democracy. Civil society is the main recipient of direct aid for this purpose.

Civil Society in El Salvador

Direct aid in El Salvador builds upon a preexisting robust civil society landscape. Civil society in El Salvador first rose to prominence in the 1960s by providing humanitarian services. The Salvadoran Civil War in the 1980s saw the organizations taking on economic and social welfare work to replace overextended governments. The constitution of El Salvador protects the right of assembly and the Ministry of Interior and Territorial Development registers civil society organizations under that protection. Previous administrations promoted the creation and smooth functioning of civil society organizations. However, President Bukele mistrusts civil society organizations and his government stigmatizes them.

Civil society organizations previously received direct aid in El Salvador from USAID. In 2020, $7.5 million out of $60 million in USAID funding for El Salvador targeted improving governance and involving civil society. Experts had been lobbying for civil society organizations’ increased involvement with the distribution of aid long before President Bukele incited USAID’s action and many activists in Latin America praised USAID’s adjustment. Activists expressed hope that civil society organizations from other countries in the Northern Triangle would also secure larger roles in upcoming projects.

Strategy for El Salvador

While foreign aid from the United States circumvents the Salvadoran government, foreign policy officials continue to pressure the Bukele administration to restore the separation of powers. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Costa Rica in June 2021 for an annual meeting with the member states of the Central American Integration System. During the gathering, Blinken met privately with the Salvadoran foreign minister to discuss the issue of aid. The Biden administration also decided to bypass the lengthy appointment process for an ambassador to El Salvador and instead sent former U.S. ambassador Jean Manes to El Salvador as charge d’affaires to handle diplomatic relations with El Salvador immediately.

While the programs in El Salvador that will receive direct aid are currently unspecified, the United States has successfully committed domestic private actors to invest in El Salvador. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that Microsoft will give internet access to three million citizens in the Northern Triangle countries, including El Salvador. This demonstrates how private actors fulfill roles that governments traditionally perform, such as infrastructure expansion, when governments fail to provide services. USAID hopes to utilize civil society organizations to run similar programs for democratic reform in El Salvador.

Moving Forward

The Salvadoran government’s decision to remove its top judiciaries led USAID to retract its trust in the country’s government with regard to aid funding. USAID chose civil society organizations to receive aid instead and also set aside direct aid to further democratic reforms. Official plans for redirected aid funding have yet to be released, but U.S. government officials have historically seen success in engaging private actors in tasks that governments usually complete. As the United States continues to pressure the Salvadoran government to increase accountability, foreign aid to El Salvador fosters more civil society engagement.

– Viola Chow
Photo: Wikipedia Commons

The Benefits of Surf Tourism in El Salvador

Surf tourism in El Salvador
Many know El Salvador for its beautiful beaches and surfable waves. However, gang violence also makes the country the deadliest non-war zone in the world. Bryan Perez grew up in Punta Roca, El Salvador, where he began surfing at a young age. The sport helped him escape gang life, and he became a four-time World Cup champion. Perez’s success story increased surf tourism in El Salvador and gave Salvadorans hope of a better life.

Gang Culture in El Salvador

In 2019, approximately 23% of El Salvador’s population lived in poverty, and an estimated 8% had a connection to gangs. Salvadoran gangs have traditions and sadistic rites of passage, and they often socialize children into them at a young age. A person who refuses to support a gang risks torture or murder.

Surf Tourism

The beaches of El Salvador were what drew nearly 38% of the 350,000 Americans who visited the country in 2015. El Salvador nonprofits such as La Red Foundation use surf tourism to help impoverished communities.

Salvador Castellanos established La Red Foundation to show that surfing can be an alternative to gang life. He has recruited more than 1,500 volunteers to run surf camps, provide food and install infrastructure in poverty-stricken communities. Overall, La Red Foundation has used surf tourism to provide resources for more than 3,000 people. In exchange for volunteers’ efforts, La Red Foundation gives them amazing surf opportunities on El Salvador’s best beaches.

Salvador Castellanos’s son, Marcelo Castellanos, established El Salvador’s first professional surfing academy, Puro Surf. Puro Surf provides top-notch surfing training in a safe environment, and it helped a young Bryan Perez escape gang life.

Star Surfer Bryan Perez

As a child, Bryan Perez supported his family by watching tourists’ cars while they surfed, and he used his earnings to negotiate truces with local gangs. After receiving a broken surfboard from a tourist at age nine, Perez discovered his love for surfing. By the time he was a teenager, Perez had become highly dedicated to the sport.

Perez temporarily lost his passion for surfing after his little sister died from gang violence in 2014. Reflecting on that year, Perez said, “I was so depressed it was hard to get surfing again. I didn’t have the energy to compete and get focused.” Nevertheless, Marcelo Castellanos took Perez in and helped him rediscover his motivation. Perez trained intensively at Puro Surf Academy, where Castellanos helped him gain sponsors and surf in international competitions. Once Perez began surfing internationally, he became one of El Salvador’s most famous athletes. Because of his likable personality and strong media presence, the country closely followed his performances.

Hope for the Future

Perez failed to qualify for the Olympics at the 2021 World Surfing Games in El Salvador. However, his escape from gang life demonstrated how the capitalization of surfing can change lives. Perez became an inspirational figure and role model for Salvadorans living in poverty.

Perez’s international fame also put El Salvador on the map as a top surfing spot. The country’s leader, President Nayib Bukele, is working to decrease gang violence by capitalizing on surf tourism in El Salvador. He promoted the 2021 World Surfing Games because according to the Salvadoran government, surf tourism will create an estimated 50,000 jobs and has already created 200 businesses. With additional job opportunities, citizens can escape gang life.

Surf tourism in El Salvador increases the quality of life by boosting the economy and giving hope to a poverty-stricken nation. Despite the continued struggle against gang culture, both nonprofits and the government are advocating for a better future in El Salvador.

– Abby Adu
Photo: Flickr

Tackling Corruption in El Salvador

corruption in El Salvador

In 2018, El Salvador received a Corruption Perception Index score of 35 out of 100, with 100 being no perceived corruption. El Salvador ranked 105 out of 108 countries that the index scored. This poor rating is a reason for concern. However, with the establishment of the International Commission Against Impunity in El Salvador in September 2019, there is newfound hope.

Cost of Corruption

Corruption is not just morally wrong, it is also expensive, costing the world at least $2.6 trillion every year according to an estimate by the World Economic Forum. The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has noted that corruption often disproportionately affects the poor. That $2.6 trillion comes from schools, hospitals and other critical institutions losing resources and businesses and individuals paying bribes, creating a deteriorating effect on the society as a whole.

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador estimates that every year the government loses $1.5 billion without a trace. Former President Tony Saca cost El Salvador $300 million because he redirected government funds into the companies and banks of family and friends. Meanwhile, his successor, Mauricio Funes, gave away another $351 million to family and associates.

Corruption in El Salvador has also largely centered around the actions of the state security forces and gang-related activities. Within the state security forces, there has been a pattern of excessive force, including reports of extrajudicial killings and threats against the LGBT community, children and those who work toward the rehabilitation of gang members by the U.N. In 2017, there were reports of a death squad engaging in killings, disappearances, robbery, sexual assault and extortion. Additionally, there are approximately 60,000 gang members throughout the country, and in many cases, they are the ones who set and enforce local rules and partner with government officials in criminal operations.

The International Commission Against Impunity in El Salvador

The commission serves to act as an autonomous and neutral institution to ensure transparency within the federal government by investigating possible corruption in El Salvador and helping to enforce the laws. It is accomplishing this by establishing close relations with institutions in the country. This includes the establishment of an Anti-Corruption Unit within the National Civil Police, as well as working with the Ministry of Finance, the General Directorate of Customs and the General Directorate of Migration.

The El Salvadoran government has worked with the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States to set up the commission. The organization includes 35 countries in the Western Hemisphere and dedicates itself to the promotion of democracy, security and development. It has been working with various institutions within El Salvador, including the Attorney General’s Office, Supreme Court of Justice and various civil society organizations to ensure greater transparency and that authorities properly enforce the laws in El Salvador.

Concerns with the Commission

Firstly, Bukele’s major step of establishing the commission has come only in the past few months, meaning it is too early for there to be conclusive evidence of its impact on corruption in El Salvador.

Secondly, the commission is in conjunction with the Organization of American States, not the U.N. People have questioned the legitimacy of the commission due to the fear that the organization will not lead the commission with as serious intent, as the U.N. led the Guatemalan impunity commission. This fear stems from the belief that the organization is “underfunded, poorly managed and inadequately staffed,” according to the Foreign Policy Magazine. It is important to note that despite these concerns, the organization has played a crucial role in uncovering human rights violations in the Americas over the past several decades.

Lastly, President Bukele has stated that the commission will not require lawmaker approval to run. Jessica Estrada of the National Foundation for Development has added that the El Salvadoran “constitution does not allow the establishment of a mechanism” similar to that led by the U.N. in Guatemala. These statements call into question how much will change if there is a lack of legal enforcement available.

Reason for Hope

For one, the International Crisis Group reported in 2018 that the Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala has helped lead to a 5 percent average annual decrease in the murder rate in the country since it formed in 2007, providing a precedent for success. The commission in Guatemala accomplished this by being instrumental in the passing of legislation that allows for wiretaps along with greater use of DNA and ballistic testing and with other modern investigation methods. These efforts helped to create stronger law enforcement, discouraging criminal activity.

Also, already under the newly elected President, El Salvador has seen its most peaceful month this century, averaging only 3.6 homicides per day in October 2019. At its worst, the country suffered through an average of 17.6 homicides per day throughout the entire year of 2015.

Finally, within weeks after his election, President Bukele deployed police and soldiers to areas of highly concentrated extortion efforts where the gangs in the country receive 80 percent of their income, giving some sense of how seriously he is taking the issue.

While the fight against corruption in El Salvador is far from over, there is meaningful potential for the creation of a more peaceful and transparent state.

– Scott Boyce
Photo: UN Multimedia