Projected GDP Growth Could Stabilize Poverty in Moldova
According to data from the World Bank and the United Nations (U.N.), Moldova is currently the poorest country in Europe based on its GDP and percentage of citizens living below the poverty line. One primary reason for the widespread poverty in Moldova is the Russo-Ukrainian War. Moldova has taken in the highest rate per capita of Ukrainian refugees since the start of the war, an estimated 131,000 as of May 2025. Project Hope reports that more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees have crossed the Moldovan border, but only about 148,000 have remained. The population of Moldova now sits at 2.96 million according to the U.N., but it has endured a steady decline as citizens continue to emigrate to escape the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Moldova
International relief efforts in Moldova have been increasing due to escalations in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Created in 1961, the World Food Programme (WFP) is the branch of the United Nations that deals with food assistance and is also the largest global nonprofit addressing poverty. It projects that the poverty rate in Moldova is now 33.6%, compared to 25% before the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War. This increase has negatively impacted Moldovans’ quality of life, access to food and shelter and the ability to provide for their families. Organizations from around the globe have stepped in to provide relief to those struggling in Moldova as a result of the conflict.
Relief for Moldovan Nationals and Ukrainian Refugees
In partnership with the Moldovan government and the U.N., the WFP has provided significant relief to both Ukrainian refugees at the Moldovan border and Moldovan families welcoming them. The WFP provides financial support to Ukrainian refugees and their host families across Moldova, as well as three hot meals a day in Ukrainian refugee accommodation centers. It describes its financial relief efforts: the WFP is working with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) on a government initiative — the Provision of Emergency Cash Assistance to Crisis-Affected Populations and Integration of Shock Response into the National Social Protection System in Moldova — which provides emergency multipurpose cash to the most vulnerable Moldovans to cover their essential needs and promote social cohesion between refugees and Moldovans.
Project Hope is a nonprofit organization that focuses on improving access to health care in regions affected by disaster and conflict. Founded in 1958 in the United States, it is now an international organization. In partnership with The Moldova Project, Project Hope has helped establish nine child-friendly safe spaces to provide play spaces, education, mental health and integration services for Ukrainian children, parents and caregivers. These playrooms have supported more than 9,000 Ukrainian refugees and host community members. Project Hope has also supplied primary health care facilities in highly impacted areas such as the Ștefan Vodă, Florești and Telenești districts with supplies and equipment. In addition, Project Hope introduced mobile medical units across Moldova, which have treated approximately 4,000 patients who otherwise would have gone without medical attention. These units transport one doctor, nurse and driver to rural and underserved communities across Moldova.
Looking Ahead
As of June 3, 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development projected that Moldova’s GDP will grow 2.8% in 2026 and another 3.5% in 2027. This growth results from increased performance in sectors such as agriculture and construction, as well as the economic stabilization recent relief efforts have brought. GDP growth is significantly linked to poverty reduction, as economic growth typically bolsters the incomes of every economic class. Although the poverty rate in Moldova is still approximately one-third, these new projections and parallel relief efforts for refugee assistance are beginning to alleviate its position as the most poverty-stricken country in Europe.
– Natalie Naylor
Natalie is based in New York, NY and focuses on Good News for The Borgen Project.
Photo: Unsplash
