Guinea, a lower middle-income nation on the west coast of Africa, has a population of 13.85 million people, 62% in rural areas. It has a poverty rate that grew to 50% in 2022 and it ranks 182:191 countries in the Human Development Index (2021-2022). The HDI measures health (life expectancy at birth), education (mean and expected years of schooling) and standard of living (gross national income per capita).

A Hunger Crisis

Guinea is 95 out of the 127 countries ranked in the 2024 Global Hunger Index, with a Serious level of hunger. This represents a downward trend since 2000 when its situation was ranked Alarming, likely because almost half of the population was considered undernourished at that time. The four contributing factors to this score are percent of the population undernourished (currently 10.3%), child (under five years old) stunting (26.1%), child mortality (9.6%) and child wasting (6.4%). Its GHI score puts it in the middle of the 16 West Africa region countries ranked.  

USAID reports the country’s Global Food Security Index as 45.1 (out of 100; higher is better), based on affordability, availability, quality and safety and sustainability and adaptation, about the same as the average for the region. The International Monetary Fund reported Guinea as one of the countries worst affected by the increase in food and fertilizer prices after the outbreak of war in Ukraine in early 2022, with 1.2 million people (11% of the population) dealing with acute food insecurity. 

WFP Food and Nutrition Strategy for Guinea

In July 2024, the World Food Programme, active in Guinea for 60 years, indicated that it was continuing to implement its Interim Country Strategic Plan (2019-2024) with a new five-year (2024-2029) strategic plan. Requiring $143.5 million, the plan specifically targets vulnerable rural people, within its overall mission to improve food and nutrition security and to enhance sustainable agricultural development. 

The new plan’s five Strategic Results comprise seven activities: 

• Food and nutrition assistance, primarily to populations in crisis
• Nutritious school meals, along with nutrition and health interventions
• Community-level nutrition prevention package and services for at-risk populations
• Support for the development of climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive value chains
• National capacity strengthening for the development and implementation of food security, nutrition, emergency preparedness and response and social protection management systems
• Air transport services and technical assistance
• On-demand services and technical assistance

Climate and Guinea’s Natural Resources

Guinea is rich in natural resources and has a climate capable of supporting a variety of crops. Its economy relies heavily on agriculture and mining. According to the World Bank, in 2024, agriculture employed more than half of Guinea’s population (53%) and accounted for 27.8% of the national GNP. But this is primarily subsistence agriculture, with low productivity and minimal contribution to exports. Mining-driven growth is seen possibly to foster Dutch-disease dynamics, whereby the successful development of one sector (e.g., mining) may lead to a decline in competitiveness in other sectors (e.g., agriculture). However, this can be avoided in part by attention to the other sectors.

The World Bank sees “significant untapped potential” for sustainable growth in agriculture, but this will depend on the country’s ability to address climate-induced shocks that affect crop production, livestock and fisheries. These shocks include expected periods of intense heat, shorter and more intense rainy seasons, and flooding and landslides from more frequent intense storms, as well as a projected rise in sea level. Adverse climate could impact up to 40% of productivity, which could decline up to 35% in the long term, with an attendant impact on growth and food security.

Climate change—especially global warming and the increasing variability of rainfall—contribute to the ND-GAIN Country Index ranking Guinea as the 24th most vulnerable country and the 148th most ready country. Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative Index assesses a country’s vulnerability to climate change and its ability to adapt to this change via its economic, governance and social readiness. The factors considered are food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat and infrastructure. 

The World Bank Group’s September 2024 Economic Update for Guinea is focused on natural resource management, with climate-proofed agriculture a key player because of its potential for job creation and diversification. While inputs have improved, water management practices. including improved irrigation infrastructure are a challenge. Key recommendations include policy reform and investment in agriculture, input subsidies and sustainable forestry practices.

First Steps

Food security, particularly moving food systems and agriculture from a subsistence orientation to a market orientation, is seen as an urgent priority. An April 2024 meeting between Guinea’s Ministers of Environment and Education and the World Food Programme’s Country Director targeted on accelerating the Adaptation Fund Program and its goal to address climate change and sustainable development through innovative agroforestry and energy solutions. A first step is to implement a National School Canteens program to increase the WFP’s coverage beyond its current 10% of rural schools. 

– Staff Reports
Photo: Wikimedia
Updated: October 25, 2024