India’s Shifting Population Structure
The United Nations (U.N.) has been recording population data since 1950. Not once has another nation contested with China’s population — until this year. As of 2023, India has become the most populous nation with a population of 1.4286 billion, compared to China’s population of 1.4257 billion — a difference of 29 million. This shift in population bears the question as to whether this is a marker for a change in the global economy or whether this will only exacerbate poverty in India.
Consequences of Overpopulation
India’s vast population has been a continuous cause of poverty due to a strain on resources. More than 60% of India’s population live on less than $3.10 a day, the World Bank’s median poverty line. Furthermore, only 11.3% of children from the age of 6 to 23 live on an adequate diet, and while more than 90% of children attend primary school, less than 40% complete secondary school.
Overpopulation creates obstacles to providing adequate nutritional and medical care, high-level education and economic opportunities to the population as a whole, increasing poverty and income inequality. The population growth initially appears to increase poverty in India, only continuing the trends we have seen in the past; however, additional shifts in India’s population age structure are providing potential for new economic opportunities in India.
Shifts in Population Structure
Although India’s population is growing, fertility rates have declined by nearly 20% in the last decade. While there are more people of childbearing age, they are choosing to have fewer children than in previous decades. This is assumed to be correlated with the increase in education, urbanization, female status and family planning programs, which have been rising in the last 75 years of India’s independence. Now, working-aged people make up more than 60% of India’s population, producing a “demographic dividend,” economic growth potential that results from a shift in population structure.
Results of a Demographic Dividend
India’s new population structure provides the nation with even more human capital. To utilize this strength, India still needs to address its limitations in resources and care, which are the main causes of poverty. Investments in literacy, education and health are necessary for this larger working-age population to thrive. Additionally, the creation of jobs and increased economic opportunities is essential for the growth potential. Past developments in urbanization, increasing female status and caste system convergence could aid this effort.
The International Monetary Fund estimates a 6% medium-term economic growth in India. This estimation is mainly thanks to urbanization developments, such as road pavement, building new airports and expanding electricity and water access. While these developments are aiding in transportation and reducing obstacles to finding work, there appears to be a need to spread this investment toward rural low-income populations. Balancing urban growth with the prevention of increased income inequality could pose another challenge in addressing India’s new demographic dividend.
India continues to face the challenges of a rapidly growing population. As the nation struggles to provide the necessary resources and economic opportunities to support its population, there is a need for efforts that aim to fight poverty in India. On the bright side, India’s shifting population structure could be a catalyst for economic growth in India. With investments in job production and education in both urban and rural areas, there’s potential for India to capitalize upon its bustling population, rather than allowing it to exacerbate poverty.
– Aliya French
Photo: Pixabay