Millions of households across developing countries continue to struggle with rising food costs despite improvements in global commodity markets. Food security after the Ukraine war will remain a major concern for governments, humanitarian organizations and vulnerable communities as food inflation limits access to basic necessities. Although international grain prices have fallen from their 2022 peak, many countries still experience elevated food prices that contribute to hunger, malnutrition and poverty.

Russia and Ukraine play a crucial role in global food production. Before the war, the two countries accounted for nearly 30% of global wheat exports, around 20% of maize exports and more than 50% of sunflower oil exports. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, disruptions to Black Sea shipping routes immediately affected global food supplies and international markets. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that its Food Price Index reached an all-time high of 159.7 points in March 2022, largely driven by soaring cereal and vegetable oil prices.

Why Food Prices Have Not Fully Stabilized

Although commodity markets have become less volatile since 2022, food security continues to face several challenges. Transportation and shipping costs remain higher than before the conflict in many regions, while global supply chains are still recovering from initial wartime disruptions. Several countries also introduced export restrictions to protect domestic food supplies. For example, India restricted wheat exports in 2022, while countries including Kazakhstan and Serbia implemented temporary controls on grain exports. Although intended to stabilize domestic markets, these measures reduced food available on international markets and increased prices for import-dependent countries. According to the World Bank, food price inflation remains above 5% in many low- and middle-income economies, while several countries continue to experience food inflation exceeding 20%.

Changing Climate and Food Prices

Climate-related disasters have added another layer of pressure to global food systems. Droughts, floods and extreme heat have reduced agricultural production across several regions, making food markets more difficult to stabilize. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), conflict, the changing climate and economic instability now intersect to create one of the world’s largest food security crises. In countries already dependent on imported food, failed harvests and extreme weather events often lead to even higher prices and reduced food availability. As a result, global food security today is shaped not only by geopolitical conflict but also by climate-related disruptions affecting agricultural production worldwide.

The impact of high food prices extends far beyond grocery bills. According to the World Bank, food inflation continues to place enormous pressure on low-income households that already spend a significant portion of their income on food. The World Bank estimates that around 700 million people worldwide live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 per day. Even modest increases in food prices can force families to skip meals, reduce dietary quality or withdraw children from school to afford basic necessities. Countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, West Asia and South Asia remain especially vulnerable because many rely heavily on imported food. Rising prices have increased food insecurity, malnutrition and financial hardship for millions of households already living near or below the poverty line.

How International Organizations Are Responding

Despite ongoing challenges, international organizations continue to strengthen global food security through emergency assistance and long-term agricultural investments. Founded in 1961, WFP operates in more than 120 countries and territories, providing emergency food assistance, school meals and nutrition programs. In 2024, the organization assisted more than 150 million people, helping communities affected by conflict, climate disasters and economic crises. The FAO, established in 1945, supports more than 130 countries by strengthening agricultural production, improving farming techniques and helping governments build resilient food systems that can better withstand future shocks. Meanwhile, the World Bank has committed more than $45 billion toward food and nutrition security initiatives since 2022. These investments support farmers, improve irrigation systems, strengthen agricultural supply chains and increase access to affordable food in vulnerable countries. Together, these organizations are helping countries move beyond emergency relief by investing in long-term food resilience, agricultural productivity and sustainable development.

Food Security After the Ukraine War

Although international commodity markets have improved since the height of the crisis, food affordability remains a significant global challenge. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate-related disasters and fragile supply chains continue to affect food access for millions of people. However, there are encouraging signs of progress. Investments in climate-resilient agriculture, stronger food systems and expanded humanitarian assistance are helping vulnerable communities recover. Programs led by the WFP, FAO and World Bank continue to improve agricultural resilience, support farmers and expand access to nutritious food. Continued international cooperation, targeted investments and sustainable agricultural development will be essential to reducing poverty and ensuring that future global shocks do not leave millions of people vulnerable to hunger. By strengthening food systems today, governments and humanitarian organizations can build a more secure and resilient future for communities around the world.

– Srinidhi Madhavan

Srinidhi is based in Leeds, UK and focuses on Politics for The Borgen Project.

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