The African Sahel’s era of dormancy, marked by a lull in coup attempts and political turmoil, had not been without exceptions. However, recent insurgencies, such as Niger’s coup, suggest a departure from hopes of regional stability.

Among the noteworthy uprisings, a chain of revolts appears to challenge established power dynamics and power holders of the past decade. Of most significance are the military-orchestrated coups of 2020 and 2021 in Mali, the political upheaval that engulfed Chad in 2021, the decisive 2021 Sudanese coup d’état that overthrew long-standing leader Omar al-Bashir, both 2022 uprisings in Burkina Faso, and finally the 2023 coups in Niger and Gabon.

The latest shifts in the regional political landscape serve as reminders of the underlying challenges facing the Sahel, forcing consideration of alternative routes to attaining regional sustenance and growth. Notably, the 2023 military takeover in Niger highlights the devastation insurgency can bear on critical aid and developmental support to West Africa, while also prompting consideration of alternative avenues for growth, including prospects for greater self-sufficiency as well as increased regional cohesion.

Niger’s Coup

Niger had been heavily reliant on international assistance before its coup in 2023. External budget support and loans made up nearly half of the Nigerien annual budget, entailing approximately $2 billion in development aid. Consequent sanctions by the international communities in response to the coup bear significant threats to the livelihood of Nigeriens. Markedly, the international reaction included the EU’s suspension of all budgetary support and security collaborations with Niger, the World Bank’s suspension of disbursements and The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) extensive sanctions on the country.

ECOWAS sanctions included the cancellation of a planned $51 million bond issuance and espousing uncertainties regarding international debt repayment. The cessation of power supply from Nigeria and strict border restrictions amplified the impact, already leading to prolonged power outages, economic concerns across sectors and a 17% increase in the price of rice witnessed within the first week of sanctions.

Unveiling the Potential for Further Deterioration in Niger

Potential further implications for Niger arising from international and regional sanctions encompass diminished remittance inflow which had reached an all-time high of $534 million in 2022. Frozen banking activities and suspended foreign assistance also pose large impediments restraining the government budget as well as the state’s humanitarian response capabilities. Consequently, vital activities of ongoing lean season food distributions and subsidized sales of essential commodities are inhibited. Border closures and halted donor funding also directly impact ongoing humanitarian aid efforts, constricting imports of critical items for the treatment and prevention of malnutrition. Finally, the sanctions’ ripple effects could also further escalate inflationary pressures, while Niger still lacks the fiscal flexibility to counter such costs in the short-to-medium term. 

Hope for Niger: Exploring Potential Avenues for Advancement

The fortification of resilience and self-sufficiency in Niger can begin to be fostered through the utilization of available resources as well as support from select neighboring countries. As the seventh largest supplier of uranium in the world, and already accounting for 70% of France’s electricity production, Niger can strive to play a larger role in meeting international nuclear energy requirements.

Concurrently, the military government of Niger has announced the reopening of borders with Algeria, Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali and Chad. From amongst its neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso, have already signaled solidarity by planning a joint official delegation to support Niger, while Algeria continues to emerge as an ally in Niger’s positive trajectory. While urging the reinstatement of constitutional order, Algeria advocates for a peaceful diplomatic resolution that would enable it to honor its long-standing commitment to building deeper political, security, and economic relations with Niger. The notable collaboration in 2022, wherein Algeria, Nigeria and Niger united under a memorandum of understanding to erect a trans-Saharan natural gas pipeline, exemplifies this bond. With an estimated value of $13 billion, the visionary initiative holds the potential to channel up to 30 billion cubic meters of supplies to Europe annually. 

Prospects for Deeper Regional Integration

A heightened regional political and economic integration holds substantial potential for regional self-sufficiency and growth. For example, the diverse economic structures within the region encompassing both oil exporters and importers, with varying degrees of reliance on agriculture, extractive industries and manufacturing provide a foundation for mutual fulfillment of economic needs.

In 2019, ECOWAS embarked on a path toward forging a common monetary union, as part of more profound economic integration to better build regional resilience and cooperation. The inaugural meeting of the working group convened in Abuja in April 2019 saw Dr. Ko Konadu Apraku, the Commissioner for Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Research of the ECOWAS, underscoring the integration of a common monetary union as a foundational aspect of ECOWAS’ vision.

Dr. Apraku emphasized the transformative potential of a singular ECOWAS currency that could help comprehensive social, cultural and economic metamorphosis within the region. By committing to robust policy and institutional frameworks capable of striking a favorable balance between benefits and risks, leaders could propel the economic prosperity and well-being of ECOWAS countries, aligning with the vision that the African Union set for realization by 2034. During the meeting, participants went so far as to schedule future conventions aimed at proposing the name and design of the ECOWAS currency. However, despite the aspirations of the ECOWAS member states to achieve a unified monetary and currency union, various delays have marked the journey.

Looking Ahead

While models of African monetary unions do exist, they remain exclusive and largely stagnant as is evident with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) that encompasses eight ECOWAS primarily francophone nations. The WAEMU shares the CFA franc, which is pegged to the Euro and dates back to 1945. However, questions linger regarding the continuity of the French Treasury’s pledge to ensure the CFA franc-to-euro convertibility at a fixed parity in the face of an expansion or modification of the CFA monetary zone. While obstacles persist in the face of plans for the development of the West African Monetary Zone currency, they remain underway with the eventual goal of merging the new note with the CFA to create a unified stable currency for West and Central Africa. 

Moreover, as the COVID-19 pandemic reignited discourse across Africa concerning instruments of enhanced regional cooperation, it may be reasonable to hope that in light of Niger’s coup, the fervor for regional integration might similarly rise to encourage decisive strides toward fostering a united front in the face of recent challenges. As their potential of generating a more resilient and cohesive environment warrants, Niger could strive to reduce susceptibility to external shocks and dependency on foreign aid, while fostering greater economic and political stability across Central and West Africa’s Sahel.

– Nadia Asaad
Photo: Flickr