Located between Poland and Russia, Belarus was part of the Soviet Union before its post-Cold War decline. After the fall of the USSR, it began a long transition to adapt to a changing global dynamic, eventually switching from a command economy to a highly centralized form of market socialism. 

Due to its resilience and economic success, food insecurity is not a significant issue for the country today. However, vulnerabilities closely tied to hunger still pose nationwide threats to its stability, and require a combination of state reform and international intervention to prevent further escalation.

Low Levels of Hunger

Below are five indicators that define the current state of hunger in Belarus:

1. Belarus is currently one of 20 countries that has a Global Hunger Index (GHI) rating of less than five. Countries with rates of less than 10 are at low risk of hunger, which is measured by levels of undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting and child mortality.
2. Belarus’s food market is expected to grow annually by 9.42% from 2024–2029, with a revenue of $14.57 billion in 2024. It is also expected to show a volume growth of 2.7% in 2025.
3. Agriculture is a significant sector of the Belarusian economy, contributing to the country’s food security and export growth. In 2022, agriculture constituted 7.71% of the country’s GDP. Innovative methods such as vertical farming have increased yields without the use of harmful pesticides or chemicals.
4. Poverty remains low in Belarus, decreasing from 3.9% in 2022 to 3.6% in 2023. According to the World Bank, poverty levels are predicted to remain relatively unchanged in 2024 and 2025.
5. Health care is easily accessible to all Belarusians, including those in rural areas. As of 2023, Belarus has 53 medical practitioners and 137 mid-level medical personnel per 10,000 people, which is higher than other countries like Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands.

Lingering Risks

Inflation and low wages pose risks to food security in Belarus. The annual inflation rate has been gradually increasing since October 2023 and was reported to be 5.8% in June 2024. Price surges in fresh produce have accordingly been observed in 2023 and 2024, with the cost of foods such as cucumbers, white cabbage and grapes rising nearly 20% in comparison to previous years. The Eurasian Development Bank currently predicts that inflation could accelerate to 8% due to a weaker exchange rate and increased domestic demand.

As of January 1, 2024, the minimum wage in Belarus is BYN 626, or $191.22, which is intended to cover the cost of basic necessities like food, clothing and utilities. However, this is less than the average salary in the United States and other European countries. Additionally, workers in industries outside of technology are often subject to lower wages – the average salary of education workers in November 2023 was 1,098 BYN or $343, which is insufficient to afford foods with inflated prices or sustain a healthy diet long-term.  

Sustaining Stability

Countering inflation has been one of Belarus’s key goals in 2024. Restrictions on the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers, which account for 20% of the global supply, resulted in a large price increase for the product. Despite backlash from the European Union, the Belarusian government has taken an anti-sanctions stance in an effort to prevent food security issues and promote better market stability worldwide. 

Additionally, joint programs between the state and U.N. agencies have been focusing on improving the agricultural sector and supporting marginalized groups since 2022. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus, have conducted assessments in the areas of food security and agriculture to develop new opportunities for supply chains between farmers and major retailers and advance the certification of organic products. Similarly, UNICEF has analyzed the impact of factors that feed into hunger such as rising food prices and income redistribution to provide recommendations on strengthening social assistance tools. By continuing to invest in these programs, Belarus seeks to advance its technical capacity and resources necessary to support food security without susceptibility to inflation or wage fluctuations.

– Sarah Litchney, Moon Jung Kim
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Updated: July 30, 2024