Lebanon has spent the better part of a decade immersed in the Middle East’s ecosystem of conflict, caught between Iranian and Israeli intervention along its southern border. Today, that instability has sharpened into a direct test of fragility and rule of law in Lebanon, as President Joseph Aoun’s government struggles to disarm Hezbollah and reassert the state’s monopoly on the use of force. Aoun took office in January 2025 on that promise, tied to the November 2024 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, but more than a year later the question remains unresolved.

A State Testing Its Authority

The November 2024 ceasefire ended a year of open conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and required Israeli forces to withdraw from five military positions in southern Lebanon. Aoun’s government also committed to disarming Hezbollah, according to the House of Commons Library. Hezbollah refused to lay down its weapons until Israel completed its withdrawal. In this way, disarmament became a threat to Lebanon’s own standing rather than a step toward sovereignty.

By 2026, Lebanese officials reported that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had moved into former Hezbollah positions along the border and near the Litani River, extending the army’s presence into territory the group once controlled.

Renewed Pressure, Renewed Risk

The fragile progress unraveled after the United States and Israel killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a February 2026 airstrike on Tehran, escalating the broader U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. Hezbollah responded by firing six rockets into northern Israel, and the Lebanese government proved unable to compel full disarmament of the group, reviving fears of renewed conflict.

By June 2026, Washington and Jerusalem set stricter conditions for a new ceasefire, including complete Hezbollah disarmament, an end to hostilities and exclusive military authority for the LAF, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Lebanese, Israeli and U.S. officials continued negotiations through the summer, most recently in Rome in July 2026.

On June 16, 2026, Israel agreed to withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, though the displaced residents and left damaged infrastructure behind were aspects to consider, Reuters reported.

Aoun described the Rome talks as showing “positive progress,” according to Vatican News, and negotiators added the return of Lebanese prisoners and a halt to house demolitions to the agenda.

Despite the diplomatic intervention, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported that Israeli forces fired more than 450 projectiles into south Lebanon and crossed into Lebanese airspace nearly 100 times more than a single weekend in early August, increasing pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah.

Rebuilding State Institutions

Efforts to address fragility and rule of law y in Lebanon go beyond the battlefield. Since September 2017, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has worked with the Lebanese government to strengthen the country’s security and justice institutions. The program has helped turn municipal police forces into community-policing units in more than 300 municipalities, providing services to more than 260,000 people across 75 villages. According to UNDP, it has also established four legal-aid helpdesks with the U.N. refugee agency, providing free legal assistance to more than 19,000 people, 62% of whom are women. The project has received more than $14 million from international donors, including the United States, the European Union and Denmark, and is expected to continue until June 2027.

Present Day

Violence has decreased since the Rome talks and a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement on the wider regional conflict, though Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon continued into August, according to France 24 — a reminder of the gap that still separates what is agreed on paper from what happens on the ground.

This fragility has deepened poverty across the country. According to the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Lebanon Crisis Response Plan 2026, the collapse of formal safety nets alongside a weakened rule of law has left vulnerable populations exposed, with more than 79% of Lebanon’s population now living below the poverty line. Migrants face particular risk: approximately 165,000 of them, roughly 70% women, are exposed to exploitation, loss of legal status and exclusion from aid. IOM’s response focuses on community stabilization, peacebuilding, and social cohesion, working alongside the Lebanese government.

The European Union has also stepped in, committing €100 million in humanitarian aid after the March-April 2026 escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which displaced more than a million people. Food, shelter, and other essential support for those caught in the crisis has been constantly provided.

Even so, the UNDP-backed expansion of community policing and legal aid access shows one path through which fragility and rule of law in Lebanon can improve, independent of the pace of diplomatic negotiations.

– Juan Guillermo Rueda Castrillón

Juan is based in Bogotá, Colombia and focuses on Politics for The Borgen Project.

Photo: Flickr