Egypt, the most populous Arab country with more than 112 million people, ranks high in the human capital and development index. Beneath this progress, however, lies a complex reality of fragility and the erosion of the rule of law in Egypt. Since 2013, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s government has enacted significant changes to Egypt’s institutional and legislative framework, including constitutional amendments and new regulatory measures affecting civil society organizations, media outlets, and public assembly. Despite these issues, Egypt faces significant economic fragility, marked by poor planning, high foreign debt and vulnerability to external shocks. Together, these challenges threaten the nation’s stability and development prospects. 

Erosion of the Rule of Law

Since 2013, when the military ousted the democratically elected government of Mohammed Morsi, the state has been reasserting its authority with Fattah el-Sisi at the helm to prevent potential dissidence with the regime. Shortly after the coup, the new government passed a law that restricts peaceful assembly. Human Rights Watch has criticized El-Sisi’s government for violating international standards. This law allows security forces to arrest peaceful protesters arbitrarily. It subjects them to a fine or up to five years in prison.

According to Amnesty International, Fattah el-Sisi’s government systematically enacts undemocratic laws to disintegrate the rule of law in Egypt, which undermines Egypt’s stability. Fattah el-Sisi uses the pretense of preventing terrorism to crack down on a pluralist society, such as the Law of Organizing the Lists of Terrorist Entities and Terrorists, which enables the government to pursue its opponents legally.

Fattah el-Sisi’s government also passed a constitutional amendment in 2019, changing the constitutional two-term limit. This amendment enabled El-Sisi to be reelected for a third term in December 2023 with 89.6 % of the votes. Egypt feigns stability under Fattah el-Sisi’s rule. However, the erosion of the rule of law in Egypt and justice institutions bolsters grievances and distrust against the state, which increases the risk of political extremism. 

Egypt’s Economic Challenges

Among the erosion of the rule of law, Egypt faces fragility. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to increase Egypt’s $3 billion by $5 billion, which will see the Egyptian Pound plummet. Egypt’s economy suffers from decades-old poor planning, weak institutions and a dominant state that deters investment. Heavy foreign debt under Fattah el-Sisi has led to reliance on costly domestic borrowing and worsening deficits. 

Amid internal economic turmoil, Egypt has proved fragile to external turmoil. Its proximity to the Gaza Strip heightens risks to the tourism industry, which accounts for 24% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, revenues from the Suez Canal, a significant source of foreign currency, have decreased by 60% as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea undermine shipping. In addition, since Egypt imports 40% of its food, it is highly susceptible to external shocks, such as a rise in global food prices due to the war in Ukraine. 

The Good News

Despite Egypt’s challenges, the government aims to improve the quality of life of its most impoverished citizens. The “Decent Life” initiative tackles multidimensional poverty and unemployment by enhancing families’ economic, social and environmental conditions in underserved villages. It aims to ensure access to essential services and create job opportunities to promote citizen self-reliance. The government committed around $9 billion to realize its development goals in rural areas and has strong support from the political leadership. 

According to a report by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED), the quality of life index has improved by 18% and the poverty rate has decreased by 14%. The MPED noted improvements in sustainable development goals, health service coverage improving by 24% and sanitation coverage by 46%. The initiative has thus far created 71,000 job opportunities in eight governorates. As of December 2024, the initiative’s first phase is 85.5% complete. Targeting approximately 18 million rural Egyptians, it is one of the world’s largest rural development projects.

Final Remark

The erosion of the rule of law in Egypt and its fragility highlight the intricate balance between governance and development. While the state grapples with weakening institutions and economic instability, the “Decent Life” initiative demonstrates a commitment to improving living standards and addressing poverty in rural areas. These development strides in health, education and essential services show potential for positive change amid broader adversity. However, sustainable progress requires bolstering the rule of law and addressing the root causes of economic fragility to foster long-term stability.

– Salome von Stolzmann

Salome is based in London, UK and focuses on Politics for The Borgen Project.

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