Bulgaria faces significant economic challenges, being one of Europe’s least affluent nations and currently the poorest in the EU as of 2023. A key hindrance to mitigating poverty is the nation’s remarkable population decline—the highest globally. Since 1990, Bulgaria has lost around 2 million people, roughly a quarter of its population. The U.N. predicts a further 23% decline by 2050. This demographic decline results in a diminished workforce, impeding the emergence of new businesses and industries that could offer economic opportunities and aid in poverty reduction.

Additionally, Bulgaria faces a distinctive challenge related to population decline, with emigration playing a significant role. Over the past decade, the country has experienced a noteworthy 11% reduction in population solely due to emigration. To gain insights into this phenomenon, The Borgen Project interviewed a young Bulgarian student currently residing in the U.K., to understand the perspectives of young Bulgarians, including himself, who choose to leave their homeland. Due to the current political landscape, the interviewee has asked to remain anonymous.

Why Bulgarians are Leaving

Following the transition from communism to democracy in 1990 in many ex-communist states, Bulgaria underwent a similar change. However, according to the interviewee, in his opinion, while the surface-level political structure shifted to democracy, the “underlying structure” of the communist system persisted. He notes, “It’s just a surface-level structure that’s gone.”

In Bulgaria, the democratic transition saw the election of the communist party, now renamed the Bulgarian Socialist Party. This continuity in governance style has contributed to widespread corruption. Individuals associated with the former communist party often receive substantial portions of the country’s resources, creating a significant wealth gap where ordinary citizens have limited access to capital. the young student describes a situation to illustrate this point:

“You would see your parents who have worked their whole lives as teachers getting €200 monthly pensions, right? And you’d be like, what’s happening? And then, you see this 18-year-old kid driving a Ferrari or a Lamborghini down the street.”

Hence, as he notes, it is not just that people are leaving because the country lacks resources, in fact, Bulgaria’s total GDP rose by 3.4% in 2022.  But, for more than 30 years, the wealth of the country stayed in the hands of a few corrupt individuals and families. Thus, the average young person believes they have no hope of achieving better prospects. As the interviewee noted, “They’ve had that hope crushed for 30 years.”

Overall, his sentiments about corruption reflect further data on this issue. For example, according to Transparency.org, a site that measures the prevalence of corruption based on the perceived level of corruption (CPI) among a country’s population, Bulgaria has the second highest level of corruption in the EU in 2022 and its CPI has remained roughly the same since 2012 when the metric was first recorded.

Impact of Population Loss on Poverty in Bulgaria

As mentioned earlier, Bulgaria faces challenges in reducing poverty due to a decline in population. Since 1990, there has been a significant decrease in the percentage of people aged 0-17 and 18-65, while the proportion of those 65 and over has risen. This demographic shift, with more people leaving, especially the working-age population, impacts economic output and hinders growth. Additionally, Bulgaria experiences a “brain drain” as highly skilled workers seek better opportunities and education abroad, contributing to economic development elsewhere. This trend limits Bulgaria’s potential for large-scale economic growth and industry expansion.

Potential for Change

Despite the ongoing population decline and the persistence of corruption in Bulgaria, one approach to address this challenge involves urging international action against corrupt individuals within the country. Earlier this year, both the U.K. and U.S. governments imposed significant sanctions and travel bans on several high-ranking Bulgarian officials, including the country’s wealthiest individual, accused of engaging in corrupt practices. While these sanctions alone may not entirely eradicate corruption, they signal a commitment from the international community to hold those involved accountable. This, in turn, could potentially contribute to stemming population loss by instilling hope among Bulgarians for a corruption-free future.

Another way to help boost economic growth and reverse the rapid population decline in Bulgaria could involve convincing successful Bulgarians abroad to come back to Bulgaria to contribute to its economy by opening up new businesses and industries there. In fact, multiple organizations have recently been established by former Bulgarian expats. One former Bulgarian expat, Hristo Bodazhiev, founded an organization called Tuk Tam in 2008, which aims to encourage Bulgarians living abroad to come back through the spread of positive news about Bulgaria’s economic progress as well as by helping them find vocational and educational opportunities back in Bulgaria through job fairs and scholarship offers. Moreover, another former expat, Petya Kertiova has created a show called “The Returnees,” which is dedicated to showcasing success stories of people who have returned to Bulgaria from abroad.

Looking Ahead

The declining population in Bulgaria poses a challenge to poverty reduction efforts, as it results in a loss of both highly and low-skilled workers from the economy. Understanding why many Bulgarians choose to leave their country could be crucial in enabling international organizations to address these trends. The interviewee’s insights shed light on the reasons behind the emigration of young Bulgarians, offering valuable information for the international community to work toward reversing this trend and, consequently, reducing poverty in Bulgaria.

– Athan Yanos
Photo: Flickr