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President Arce and his Plan for Bolivia’s Development

President Arce
On September 21, 2022, the President of Bolivia, Arce Catacora, gave a lecture at Yale University before participating in the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York. Speaking to a small room of students and faculty, President Arce presented macroeconomic data from Bolivia’s last 20 years, noting successes during the 15-year reign of his political party, Movimento al Socialismo (MAS). Throughout his lecture, he emphasized a focus on resource extraction as the primary engine behind the country’s short and long-term growth.

About President Arce

President Arce began in a celebratory tone, comparing the successes of MAS’ socialist model compared to the “neoliberalist model” which existed before it. He noted that between 2006 and 2019, the years in which his party held power, GDP per capita grew by 4.7% compared to 3% from 1985 to 2005. He also spoke about Bolivia’s success in distributing those gains fairly, raising the income of the bottom 40% by 12.5% and adopting what he labeled a “democratization of the economy.”

Additionally, he stressed Bolivia’s financial stability, pointing out the country’s low levels of external debt. Drawing from data collected by the central bank, President Arce drew the crowd’s attention to the external public debt prior to the presidency of MAS’ Evo Morales, which reached a historic high of 63% of GDP in 2003. He then noted that after 2006, Bolivia’s external debt never rose above 33%, sitting at 28.9% of GDP under his administration.

Responding to critics of his “economic social communitarian productive model” he highlighted the continual growth of businesses in Bolivia as a sign of sustainable development. Beginning in 2005, Bolivia saw more than 250,000 companies originate over the course of 14 years, with smaller growth during the pandemic years. Going out of his way to address concerns over private investment under the socialist model, he claimed Bolivia had found a viable way to mix state involvement in the economy with entrepreneurship.

Bolivia’s Challenges

Although Arce’s presentation portrayed the last 20 years in an overwhelmingly positive tone, it omitted many of the challenges that Bolivia faces. Although his model is based upon natural resource extraction, with Bolivia’s primary resource being natural gas, this cannot keep up with the rate of growth of the Bolivian economy. In fact, Bolivia has already become a net importer of hydrocarbons, at a time when energy prices are at historic highs.

The Environment

In addition, Bolivia grapples with numerous environmental issues, including poor management of its portion of the Amazon rainforest. President Arce announced in July 2022 that he would be investing in palm oil to increase the country’s energy output, something that is both inefficient and environmentally harmful. Furthermore, Arce’s administration did little to quell the massive fires in Bolivia’s Chiquitania region, and his political predecessor Evo Morales actually signed a decree in 2019 making it easier for agribusiness to exploit the land. This is a far cry from his speech at Yale, in which he promised to “respect mother earth” after a question from a faculty member.

Human Rights Issues

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Bolivia’s questionable actions regarding human rights within Bolivia and South America threaten to sour any notions of success. During the questions which followed the presentation, President Arce was asked how Bolivia could claim to support human rights while remaining on friendly terms with Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, even amidst human rights abuses. His answer, vague and evasive, did little to conceal the fact that Bolivia continues to have close ties with Venezuela, even choosing to opt out of a regional conference if Venezuela did not receive permission to attend.

The Justice System

Even within Bolivia, others have accused Arce and his party of tampering with the justice system for political gain. In June 2022 former interim president Jeanine Anez received a 10-year sentence in prison for plotting a coup, despite her rise to Bolivia’s supreme court upholding the president. Prosecutors claim she was part of a plan to remove President Evo Morales from office in 2019, despite the fact that she did not participate in the largely peaceful protests which led to his resignation. Anez claims her imprisonment is a purely political affair, designed to legitimize MAS after its fall from power after allegedly committing fraud to win the 2019 presidential election.

Looking Ahead

President Arce’s economic model has proven that it can succeed, and his presentation is a testament to the fact that Bolivia’s growth under nearly 20 years of MAS rule has been truly unprecedented. However, it does not take away from Bolivia’s murky future, and dubious record with human rights. The country has the economic potential to develop strongly, but strong political and environmental protections still remain uncertain.

– Samuel Bowles
Photo: Flickr

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Fragility and the Rule of Law in Bolivia

Rule of Law in Bolivia
Protests in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia, threaten to hamper an already struggling economy. A city-wide shutdown occurred on August 8, 2022, over the government’s decision to postpone the 2022 decennial census until 2024. On one hand, Santa Cruz’s legislators believe that delaying the census is an attempt to deny the municipality more political representation as its population has ballooned in the previous three decades. Santa Cruz’s leadership in the battle for the census reinforces the city’s trend of opposition toward the ruling government (Movimiento al Socialismo), but also its power as the economic center of Bolivia.

By strongly opposing itself to the rule of Movimiento al Socialismo, Santa Cruz’s situation shows the fragility of the rule of law in Bolivia. The United Nations highlights that rule of law plays an integral role in the development of countries and the reduction of poverty as poverty often arises from “disempowerment, exclusion and discrimination.” The rule of law upholds the voices of the people, safeguards democracy and ensures the protection of human rights.

A History of Protests

Santa Cruz’s governor Luis Camacho announced that the capital of the municipality could freeze for 48 hours starting August 8 until President Luis Arce agreed to discuss an earlier census date. As the largest city in Bolivia and its economic center, estimates indicate that each day of the shutdown will equate to an economic loss of $33 million, leading to accusations of crippling the economy for political gain. Alongside the economic problems caused by the protest, there have been reports of violence from those in favor and against the shutdown, with mayor Jhonny Fernández’s home coming under attack.

This is not a temporary issue either. Santa Cruz has undergone numerous shutdowns in previous years, dating all the way back to the nationwide shutdown in 2019 over ex-President Evo Morales’ alleged fraudulent election victory. As recently as July 2022, protestors spoke out against Movimiento al Socialismo’s imprisonment of many opposition members. Among the imprisoned is former President Jeanine Añez whose interim presidency was upheld by the Bolivian Constitutional Court prior to her condemnation.

Hope for Resolution

Although these incidents point to the fragility of the rule of law in Bolivia, there is strong hope for a resolution to the conflict. President Arce agreed to revisit the 2023 census’ date with delegates from Santa Cruz, an important step toward reconciliation between Movimiento al Socialismo and Santa Cruz’s opposition government. Another promising feature of the shutdown is that despite sporadic violence, both the central government and Santa Cruz’s mayor have called for a peaceful resolution with dialogue from all sides.

Additionally, foreign nonprofits, governments and organizations form an active part of the efforts to strengthen Bolivia’s fragile political situation. In 2019, the Organization of American States and the European Union reviewed Bolivia’s election results, reporting possible instances of electoral fraud. In 2020, with oversight once again, Bolivia held an election with a fair democratic process in place.

To safeguard democracy and the rule of law, the International Republican Institute works to strengthen “democracy and freedom” and “guide politicians to be responsive to citizens” while “[motivating] people to engage in the political process.” In Bolivia specifically, the IRI aims to “support free and fair elections, democratic institutions and local government, civil society capacity building, and efforts to promote peacebuilding and reconciliation.”

Looking Ahead

In the Declaration of the High-level Meeting on the Rule of Law, states stressed that “the rule of law at the national and international levels is essential for sustained and inclusive economic growth, sustainable development, the eradication of poverty and hunger and the full realization of all human rights and fundamental freedoms, including the right to development, all of which in turn reinforce the rule of law.”

Ultimately, fragility remains a key issue for the rule of law in Bolivia, but both local and federal governments are showing a desire to prevent violence and enforce institutional authority. The rejections of violence by Governor Camacho and President Arce indicate that although there are differences between the states and the Bolivian government, there is also a willingness to bring issues like the census to an amicable resolution to strengthen the rule of law in Bolivia.

– Samuel Bowles
Photo: Flickr