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Saving the Venezuelan EconomyA combination of poor leadership and crippling sanctions have created a nation-wide economic crisis in Venezuela. The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that even before U.S. sanctions were placed on Venezuela, the country was already enduring hyperinflation, had seen food imports fall by 71% and more than two million Venezuelans had fled the country. Nevertheless, sanctions only exacerbated the crisis as Torino Economics found U.S. sanctions on Venezuela were associated with an annual loss of $16.9 billion in oil revenue. As a result, the Atlantic Council reports that more than 80% of Venezuelan households are food insecure and 3.7 million individuals are malnourished. Consequently, refugees filed more asylum claims globally in 2018 than any other country has. The number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees is expected to reach eight million in 2020, surpassing Syrian migration by more than three million. Reforms in the county are being implemented with the aim of saving the Venezuelan economy.

Saving the Venezuelan Economy

While this economic collapse still ravishes the country, there is certainly hope for the future. Due to both internal and external pressures, the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, has begun to encourage policies of economic liberalization and privatization that are indicating an economic rebound.

Toward the end of 2019, Argus Media reported the Venezuelan government was beginning to ease economic controls. Specifically, the Maduro government erased most price controls, loosened capital controls, tightened controls on commercial bank loan operations, and most importantly, began to accept informal dollarization. Immediately these policies curbed the levels of hyperinflation that had caused the food crisis across the country. Advisers estimate inflation to be at only 5,500%, a significant improvement compared to the International Monetary Fund forecasts that predicted inflation levels of more than 10 million percent. This is largely in part to the importation of dollars into the Venezuelan economy, pushing out the uselessly-inflated Bolivars. Indeed, a Bloomberg study found Venezuela’s economy is increasingly dollarized, as 54% of all sales in Venezuela by the end of last year were in dollars. Most importantly, food and medicine imports have rebounded, now reaching 15% of the population.

Privatization of the Oil Industry

In addition to the Maduro government relaxing economic controls, the economic rebound in Venezuela has occurred due to increased privatization of the oil industry. Despite being under the control of the military for years, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company has trended toward letting private firms handle operations, aiding in fixing the mismanagement perpetrated by the military’s control of the industry. For the first time in decades, the private sector accounted for more than 25% of GDP in 2019 and likely more by the end of 2020. Consequently, the Panam Post reported that oil production increased by more than 200,000 barrels, a 20% increase following privatization.

Initiatives to Help Venezuelans in Poverty

The South American Initiative, through its medical clinic, provides medical care and medicine to Venezuelans in need, with a special focus on mothers and children. To provide these essential services, it relies on donations that people provide on the GlobalGiving platform.

Fundacion Oportunidad y Futuro addresses hunger and malnutrition with regards to children in Venezuela. It is running in an initiative to provide meals to 800 school-aged children in Venezuela. It also operates through donations via the GlobalGiving platform.

The Future of Venezuela

While there is hope to be found in these reforms, Venezuela has far from recovered. The National Survey of Living Conditions indicates that more Venezuelans are in poverty in 2020 than in 2018, with food security decreasing another 7% over the past two years. The average income of Venezuela remains low at just over 70 U.S. cents a day. These reforms are the foundational steps needed to begin to reverse the economic trend that has relegated millions of Venezuelans to extreme poverty. If the economy is ever to correct itself, liberalization and privatization will be the jumping-off point for an economically thriving Venezuela in the future.

– Kendall Carll
Photo: Flickr

Extreme Poverty in MoldovaFrom 1999 to 2015, Moldova went from a 36% extreme poverty rate to zero, effectively ending extreme poverty in Moldova. By analyzing Moldova’s poverty reduction strategies, organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank can form a blueprint to fight extreme poverty globally.

IMF Focus on Poverty Reduction

In 2000, the IMF instituted a three-pronged approach for ending extreme poverty in Moldova, which involved major reforms in governance and the public sector. Economic development, healthcare changes, educational developments and social safety nets were the primary focus to kickstart growth in the country.

  • The IMF’s focus on economic development revolved around public spending and lack of private business. Aside from ensuring fiscal responsibility from the government, government retirement plans and debt were swallowing the countries budgetary resources. The IMF advised Moldova to revise its tax system to be more equitable while strengthening its private sector by easing regulations and tax burdens on small and medium businesses.
  • Education was a foundational part of the reform process. The IMF ensured Moldova improved its education system through guidance from the World Bank. The primary focus was on improving education standards and increase the availability of secondary education to needy students.
  • The health sector developed more substantial healthcare access to reduce long-term expenses and to involve the private sector.
  • Developing better social safety nets was a key pillar for the IMF in Moldova. Most importantly, the goal of the program is to keep children out of poverty. This included food security and funding to access human development services. Also on the agenda was reforming the nation’s pension system to protect aging populations.

Impact of Changes in Moldova

These changes were to be implemented by no later than 2003 and most changes are ongoing. How well did the changes work? In 2000, Moldova’s GDP per capita was at $1,439 and by 2019 the GDP per capita rose to $3,715, doubling the nation’s economic growth. The secondary education enrollment rate was 48% in 1999 and grew to an 86% enrollment rate by 2019. Though absolute poverty remains high, these strategies were instrumental in ending extreme poverty in Moldova. Even by 2006, the extreme poverty rate was down to 4.5%.

The World Bank’s Evaluation

The World Bank processed an analysis from 2007 to 2014 using data to determine how ending extreme poverty in Moldova was effective. Compared to most of Europe, Moldova is still impoverished, but extreme poverty no longer plagued the country by 2014. There were four primary factors that the World Bank determined to be the cause of this success. Economic expansion, advanced opportunities for workers, better retirement fiscal responsibility for aging populations and international work being funneled back into Moldova’s economy, were the most effective tools for alleviating extreme poverty.

  • Despite a setback during the financial crisis in 2009, Moldova has seen steady GDP growth up until the COVID-19 pandemic. Of significant note is that Moldova showed continued growth rather than ups and downs experienced in most impoverished nations. Moldova’s commitment to attaining the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals and effectively using guidance from the World Bank and IMF are reasons for this growth. Responsible governance and low corruption were instrumental in ending extreme poverty in Moldova.
  • Moldova’s workforce lowered from 2007 to 2014, primarily due to migration; however, wage growth was significant in jobs outside of the agricultural sector. Growth in food processing, manufacturing and ICT industry jobs increased wages exponentially, while the agricultural sector still struggled. These higher-skill jobs are attributable to the country’s focus on improving secondary education access, as outlined by the IMF, providing upward mobility.
  • Responsible pension disbursement was a chief agent for ending extreme poverty in Moldova. The significant increase in distributions to aging rural citizens living in extreme poverty was an essential investment by Moldova’s government.
  • The World Bank also found that after the economic crisis, remittances from Moldovan migrant workers sent back disposable income. Most of these migrants were from low-income rural areas of Moldova. From 2007 to 2014, rural households’ disposable income from migrant transfers rose from 16% to 23%. In Moldova, remittances played a considerable role in poverty reduction.

Using Moldova as a Blueprint Worldwide

Evaluating the success in ending extreme poverty in Moldova helps pave the way to implement similar strategies globally. So, what is the blueprint for ending extreme poverty?

  • The most crucial aspect is government accountability and a strong commitment to attain Millennium Development Goals. Strong oversight to prevent corruption and ensure fiscal responsibility to follow through with plans laid out by organizations like the United Nations, the World Bank and the IMF.
  • A commitment to make secondary education more accessible, especially in rural areas, advances what a nation’s workforce is capable of and helps create job and wage growth.
  • Protecting vulnerable populations by distributing funds where they are most needed reduces extreme poverty.
  • The success of remittances in Moldova is a necessary imperative. An analysis across countries worldwide shows the significant poverty reduction effects of remittances

Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030

The U.N. aims to end extreme poverty by 2030, and when looking at Moldova’s success, it is not an outrageously unrealistic goal. With fiscal oversight, dedication to protecting the impoverished and the world’s willingness to engage, extreme poverty can be eradicated.

– Zachary Kunze
Photo: pxfuel

Top 5 Fastest Developing CountriesThe world economy is changing every day due to trade investments, inflation and rising economies making a greater impact than ever before. Improvements in these economies have been due to significant government reforms within these countries as well as the administration of international aid through financial and infrastructural efforts. These are the top five fastest developing countries in no particular order.

Top Five Fastest Developing Countries

  1. Argentina. Contrary to popular belief, Argentina is actually considered a developing country. Argentina’s economy was strong enough to ensure its citizens a good quality of life during the first part of the 20th century. However, in the 1990s, political upheaval caused substantial problems in its economy, resulting in an inflation rate that reached 2,000 percent. Fortunately, Argentina is gradually regaining its economic strength. Its GDP per capita just exceeds the $12,000 figure that most economists consider the minimum for developed countries. This makes Argentina one of the strongest countries in South America.
  2. Guyana. Experts have said that Guyana has one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. It had a GDP of $3.63 billion and a growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2018. If all goes according to plan, Guyana’s economy has the potential to grow up to 33.5 percent and 22.9 percent in 2020 and 2021. Its abundance in natural resources such as gold, sugar and rice are among the top leading exports worldwide. Experts also project that Guyana will become one of the world’s largest per-capita oil producers by 2025.
  3. India. As the second most populated country in the world, India has run into many problems involving poverty, overcrowding and a lack of access to appropriate medical care. Despite this, India has a large well-skilled workforce that has contributed to its fast-growing and largely diverse economy. India has a GDP rate of $2.7 trillion and a $7,859 GDP per capita rate.
  4. Brazil. Brazil is currently working its way out of one of the worst economic recessions in its history. As a result, its GDP growth has increased by 1 percent and its inflation rate has decreased to 2.9 percent. As Latin America’s largest economy, these GDP improvements have had a significant impact on pulling Latin America out of its economic difficulties. Additionally, investors have also become increasingly interested in investing in exchange-traded funds and large successful companies such as Petrobras, a large oil company in Brazil.
  5. China. Since China began reforming its economy in 1978, its GDP has had an average growth of almost 10 percent a year. Despite the fact that it is the world’s second-largest economy, China’s per capita income is relatively low compared to other high-income countries. About 373 million Chinese still live below the upper-middle-income poverty line. Overall, China is a growing influence on the world due to its successes in trade, investment and innovative business ventures.

This list of the five fastest developing countries sheds some light on the accomplishments of these nations as they build. As time progresses, many of these countries may change in status.

Lucia Elmi
Photo: Wikimedia

Ethiopian PM Turns to Privatization to Further Economic Growth

In a move atypical of his political alignment with the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced in June 2018 that the government will begin procedures to implement privatization in Ethiopia of various state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in telecommunications, energy and transportation.

Already one of the fastest growing economies in the world, Ethiopia hopes to continue this trend by selling shares in some of the country’s most profitable and promising industries. In this announcement, Ahmed proposed that privatization of these booming enterprises will aim to increase foreign direct investment (FDI), lessen the unemployment rate and reduce poverty.

Ethiopia’s Recent Improvements

The second largest country in Africa and home to more than 100 million people, Ethiopia has been experiencing tremendous economic growth in recent years. Unemployment has dropped from more than 26 percent in 1999 to less than 17 percent in 2015. The poverty rate has decreased from nearly 46 percent in 1995 to less than 30 percent in 2010.

While Ahmed has only been in office since April of 2018, his vows to reform Ethiopia economically and socially have surprised many. Since their coming to power in 1991, the EPRDF’s has had a history of complete state-ownership of the majority of the industry. The state, however, will remain in control of the majority of shares in the industries being opened up to foreign investment.

His promises of calming social tension and revamping the economy have been met with some skepticism, but Ahmed fervently retains that his intentions are to restore Ethiopia to a place of social stability, economic prosperity and peace. Ahmed has even gone as far as to reach out to Ethiopia’s long-term enemy, Eritrea, to find common ground.

The Prime Minister’s Plans

Although the government has yet to release detailed plans as to how they intend to implement privatization in Ethiopia, they have been working with consulting agencies abroad such as PwC and McKinsey to determine a practical and sustainable way to carry out an economic overhaul of such magnitude.

Among the SOEs the government plans to privatize, the introduction of Ethiopian Airlines to the private sector, in particular, represents a key component in Ahmed’s economic plan; Ethiopia will experience a shift from an agrarian society to a modern, competitive, industrial society. As the country’s national flag carrier and a symbol of state pride, Ethiopian Airlines has garnered an intake of hard currency (currency unlikely to be affected by inflation) three times that of coffee, a long-standing staple of Ethiopia’s economy.

Increasing Foreign Investment

The privatization of Ethiopian Airlines also indicates Ahmed’s desire to transform Ethiopia into a major air travel hub, similar to Emirates’ position in the United Arab Emirates. This will serve as a way to bring in foreign investors and to present Ethiopia as a modern contender in the world economy. By selling shares of Ethiopian Airlines and other rapidly-growing SOEs such as Ethio Telecom, Ethiopian Electric Power and Railway Corporation, Ahmed hopes to draw foreign investment since Ethiopia has experienced an alarming shortage of foreign exchange in recent years.

While privatization in Ethiopia is sure to be a slow transition, and the government will most likely remain majority shareholders in the enterprises they are selling, the country appears to be heading in a positive direction. Between 2004 and 2014, Ethiopia averaged annual economic growth of 10.9 percent and is projected to grow another 8.7 percent in the next two years.

With a goal of reaching lower-middle income national status by 2025 and a government promising major social and economic reform, Ethiopia has established itself as a nation in the midst of a true revival. Hopefully, Ahmed’s plan of privatization in Ethiopia will prove to be a positive step for the country’s future economic growth.

Rob Lee

Photo: Flickr

Addressing Nine Important Facts about Poverty in GeorgiaThe small and ancient nation of Georgia, home to the highest mountain range in Europe called the Caucasus Mountains, borders Russia and Armenia.  It was one of the first countries in the world to officially adopt Christianity and has a long, rich history intertwined with religion. Poverty in Georgia remains an ongoing concern.

Here are nine facts about poverty in Georgia.

  1. Many more Georgians report being unemployed than the official unemployment rate. The official unemployment rate in Georgia is 12 percent, but a whopping 68 percent of the population consider themselves unemployed.
  2. The separatist conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are a major cause of poverty in Georgia. Georgia officially recognizes both provinces as its territory, despite the states’ attempts to secede to Russia with the assistance of the Russian military. This follows an earlier armed conflict in these regions in 1992-1993.
  3. One in five Georgians lives below the poverty line. Officially, 20.1 percent of Georgians live below the relative poverty line.
  4. Despite being a largely agricultural nation, much of the produce in Georgia is imported. With the exception of potatoes and onions, many fruits and vegetables sold in Georgia’s markets come from Turkey, Greece or even Iran.
  5. Dependency is common. The dependency ratio in Georgia is 1:1.2, compared to the suggested level of one dependent per three people.
  6. One of the biggest contributors to poverty in Georgia is its failing pension system. Due to the aforementioned underemployment of citizens, many workers don’t pay taxes, leaving few funds for the pension system. To make matters worse, there are tens of thousands of likely nonexistent “ghost recipients” receiving government pensions.
  7. Poverty varies from region to region. Places like the mountainous, isolated Imereti and former Soviet industrial zones have suffered the worst, while more agricultural regions have fared better.
  8. Georgia now associates with the E.U. in various capacities, having signed an association agreement with the European Union that took effect in 2016. The E.U. has also loosened restrictions on the visas of Georgians working within its borders. This will hopefully have a positive effect on Georgia’s economy and lessen poverty in Georgia.
  9. Georgia has made some important political reforms. In particular, the success of various electoral and local government reforms was made clear in the parliamentary elections of 2012.

In order to combat the growing effects of poverty in Georgia, it is necessary that the country’s citizens receive help in the form of both domestic and foreign aid. With hope, Georgians can be lifted out of their joblessness and set out on a path to a brighter future.

– Andrew Revord

Photo: Flickr

The Labor Market in Developing Countries – A Case Study
Any poverty reduction strategy must include measures that ensure people are employed. Spending on public goods and focusing on rendering basic life-sustaining services such as healthcare and sufficient nutrition are absolutely essential. Beyond the basics, however, long-term development strategies must target employment to drive economic growth and contribute to a prosperous environment.

South Africa represents an interesting case study of the labor market in the developing world. It has the potential for a large amount of growth, yet is plagued by persistent unemployment. It is neither among the poorest developing nations, nor has it experienced robust growth. Across the spectrum of development, it is somewhere in the middle, and therefore the challenges it faces are broadly representative of much of the developing world’s challenges.

A 2015 World Bank report on the state of the labor market in developing countries provides an enlightening description of South Africa’s predicament. The report describes a “youth bulge,” where a young population saturates the labor market, dampening wage growth. The antidote to this economic affliction is investment in skills development and policy reforms which enhance market entry and private sector expansion.

South Africa, after the end of apartheid in 1994, managed to reduce absolute poverty via a social grant system. However, the grant system simply doesn’t measure up to the average salaries of even low-skill labor. Unemployment and inequality are still quite high in the country, so innovative economic solutions are necessary to create the kind of long-term growth which will help those remaining at the bottom of the economic ladder.

In South Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa in general, as many as 11 million young people will join the labor force every year, and will continue to do so for at least the next decade. With sufficient opportunities, this increase in labor supply could translate to a lot of economic growth. However, unemployment is rampant in South Africa, and long-term strategies for growth and poverty reduction must focus on harnessing the burgeoning young workforce to be effective.

One way of doing so is by investing in worker education and training. Presently, the availability of skilled labor is quite low. Unemployment remains high even among a growing college-educated workforce. A combination of private-sector worker training and public-sector skills development and educational subsidies could drive the expansion of a diverse, skilled workforce. This would encourage multinational firms to hire locally, as well as promote home-grown business growth.

Some private firms already recognize the need for greater investment in a skilled workforce. The Rockefeller Foundation’s Digital Jobs Africa initiative aims to create tech-based employment opportunities for African labor markets. The MasterCard Foundation also has an education and skills training program for disadvantaged African youth.

One South African company that provides a sustainable growth model that suits South Africa’s labor market conditions is Sibanye Gold. Sibanye Gold is a mining company which provides significant worker training and educational resources to its employees. The company also engages in profit sharing. The mining industry is naturally supportive of a localized labor force, for much of their workers come from areas surrounding mines. Unfortunately, socially sustainable companies like Sibanye are hamstrung by a hostile policy environment that does not support them, or worse, buries them in bureaucracy. Sibanye CEO Neal Froneman said, “[Industries such as mining] should be nurtured by the government. But it is not. It is despised.”

Clearly, private interventions alone will never create the kind of opportunities for which a growing, skilled labor force can take advantage. Real change needs to happen at a governmental level, specifically by creating public policies that diversify economic opportunity and create the kind of conditions where companies like Sibanye Gold can thrive. Doing so will harness the economic energies of a massive young workforce, providing a pathway to grow out of poverty.

Derek Marion

Sources: World Bank, Devex, The Conversation, Daily Maverick
Photo: Brookings

Sustained_Economic_ReformA new potential Anti-Poverty Model has emerged out of sustained economic reform in the Philippines. Over the past two years, local growth has significantly reduced poverty in the country. Looking ahead, continued reform measures could bring the number of poor Filipinos down to just 18-20 percent of the population by 2016.

In recent years, sustained economic growth in the Philippines has brought more jobs and improvements in living conditions for the country’s poor population. Over the course of just one year, more than a million jobs were created. What is more, unemployment is also at the lowest rate that it has been in ten years.

World Bank leading Economist Rogier van den Brink stated, “If growth is sustained at 6 percent per year and the current rate at which growth reduces poverty is maintained, poverty could be eradicated within a single generation”. In order to achieve this goal, however, key structural reforms will need to be sustained and sped up.

The most important structural reforms to focus on will be increasing investments in infrastructure, health and education, enhancing competition, simplifying regulations to promote job creation, and protecting property rights.

Back in January, the World Bank’s Philippine Economic Update was released, with the theme “Making Growth Work for the Poor.” The report lists the aforementioned goals and recommends rationalizing tax incentives by making them more targeted, transparent, performance-based, and temporary.

The potential success of continued reforms depends hugely on strengthening tax administration and improving the transparency and accountability of government spending. Once the Filipino population can agree with the manner in which their tax dollars are being spent, the new growth cycle can perpetuate itself accordingly.

During a press conference, Mr. Ven den Brink was probed on the Philippines’ lower-than-expected growth in Gross Domestic Product during the first quarter. He responded by explaining that since 2013, it has become much easier to see the way that even slow economic growth can directly reduce poverty.

Ven den Brink explained that regardless of the specific GDP number, what really matters is how that growth affects the poorest people. According to the World Bank economist, household and labor survey data all paint the same poverty-reducing picture.

While it is true that slow-moving government spending has limited the growth of the Philippine economy during the first quarter of the year, significant changes in poverty still pervade. Rates of underemployment and poverty are decreasing, and the lowest real income is growing 20-30 percent faster than the rest of the country.

Van den Brink also noted that the government’s Conditional Cash Transfer program has been a key poverty-reducing tool. The program gives out payments every month to the poorest households, which has successfully helped to lift entire families out of the poverty cycle.

Although some remain skeptical, poverty elimination in the Philippines is starting to seem like more of a feasible reality. This could be a major milestone not only for the Philippines, but for all of those involved in the global fight against poverty. Sustained economic growth could finally level the playing field, once and for all.

– Sarah Bernard

Sources: Business World, InterAksyon, World Bank
Photo: Flickr

Poverty in Laos
As one of the few countries in the world that remains communist, Laos is ranked as one of the poorest countries in east Asia.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Laos found difficulty in altering their “political and economic landscape.” Despite various attempts at reforms, Laos remained dependent on international donations following the 1990s. Majority of these donations spur from Japan, China, and Vietnam.

In spite of their conditions, the country has been able to make impressive gains within the past 20 years. In the 1990s, the proportion of poor individuals was 39 percent. By 2010, this number decreased to 27.6 percent.

Over the years, Laos has experienced various complications in reforming their economic state. The government has gradually enforced economic and business reforms since 2005. In 2011, a stock market was also opened in the hopes of shifting towards capitalism.

Although these measures have been taken, economic growth in Laos has reduced poverty on a minimal scale. In 1997, the Asian currency crisis struck a deafening blow to the country, causing them to lose more than nine-tenths of their national currency’s value against the US dollar.

The landscape of Laos adds to it’s state of disparity. Being a heavily mountainous area, the country is landlocked and widely blanketed by tropical forests. Less than five percent is suitable for any sort of agricultural subsistence, furthermore contributing to the 80 percent rate of unemployment.

Outside of the country’s capital, individuals lack electricity or any access to general facilities. In the mountainous areas where majority of the population lives, the poverty rate is roughly 43 percent. This is a significant difference compared to individuals in the lowlands, where the poverty rate is 28 percent.

Majority of the disadvantaged households are located in regions that are constantly plagued by the threat of natural disasters, lack livestock of any form, have a great number of dependents, and are led by women.

In Laos, women work more than men, taking an average of 70 percent of farming and household tasks on, while also caring for young children. The literacy rate of women is generally 54 percent, while being 77 percent for men.

One-third of those living in Laos lives below the national poverty line, lacking resources necessary to lead healthy lives. According to Health Poverty Action, less than half of all women who go into labor have a doctor, midwife, or nurse to support them.

Around 40 percent of the children in Laos are chronically malnourished and suffer from severely stunted growth. In various ethnic groups, this number increases to a disturbing 60 percent.

There is good news for the country of Laos, however. In 2010, a Nam Theun 2 dam scheme was inaugurated, projected to provide $1.3bn to the country. This will be used in order to generate electricity to allow exports to Thailand. This step forward will not only boost the economy, but help develop infrastructure as well.

In early 2011 the country was also set to have the construction of their first high-speed rail begin between Laos and China. With all of the anticipated infrastructure and improvements to the overall economy, many hope that Laos will experience relief soon.

– Samaria Garrett

Sources: BBC, Rural Poverty Portal, Health Poverty Action