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Intra African Trade and the AfCFTA

African Continental Free Trade Agreement Increases Economic Growth

Uniting 54 countries in the African Union, The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will create the largest free trade area in the world since the World Trade Organization formed in 1994. The implementation of the treaty was originally supposed to occur on July 1, 2020, but was postponed due to COVID-19 restrictions. Over 1.3 billion people with a cumulative GDP of $3.4 trillion will come together to further economic expansion. This effort will push Africa into a competitive spot in the global economy. The treaty outlines a reduction of tariff restrictions and of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) as well as a trade facilitation agreement (TFA). The AfCFTA will make vast improvements in catching intra-African trade up with the numbers of the rest of the world. 

Currently, continental exports across Africa clock in at about 19% of total exports, comparatively lower to intra-Asian and intra-Europe exports which make up around 60% of their total exports. AfCFTA looks to encourage a higher level of intra-African trade by cutting all tariffs between countries in the zone by 2035, expected to increase intracontinental exports by more than 81%, as stated by the World Trade Organization in its 2020 report.  According to CNBC, this could mean a $2.8 billion per year rise in net income in the area.

Overall, the UN Economic Commission for Africa expects African trade to increase from 15% to 25% by 2040, translating to a GDP growth of over $2 trillion. Expectations also determine that intra-African trade will encourage globalization and technology advances. Africa’s adoption of e-commerce and other electronic advantages into its economy will further those goals.

Poverty Reduction Effects

AfCFTA projects that an additional 30 million people will emerge out of extreme poverty, reducing the headcount ratio without the deal from 10.9% to 9.3% with it. The World Trade Organization also expects that 67.9 million will rise out of moderate poverty by 2035. The largest change in income will be for unskilled workers and women. Still, most social groups will see a 10% increase in income.

A key factor in poverty reduction is the growth of industries, which creates new jobs. Energy-intensive manufacturing will grow as African trade and other markets develop. Total exports related to the manufacturing industry should rise by 110% in intra-African trade and by 46% worldwide. The production of the manufacturing industry will see a $56 billion increase. As a result, a number of countries are looking to provide larger foreign direct investments to the continent. 

Growth in the agricultural sector will work alongside manufacturing to pull people out of poverty. The AfCFTA will cause the industry to see a loss of $8 billion. However, agricultural employment will see a rise in 60% of the countries involved in the deal. Expectations determine that agricultural exports (only second to manufacturing) will grow 49% in intracontinental trade and 10% in worldwide trade.

Overall income will also grow as a result of the AfCFTA. A higher quality of life will close the gender gap and the gap between skilled and unskilled workers. The full implementation of AfCFTA could cause a 7% growth in real income ($450 billion) by 2035. Still, it is important to note that this growth will not occur equally over all the countries involved.

Mitigation of COVID-19 Economic Effects

Due to COVID-19, the implementation of the AfCFTA terms is on hold indefinitely. Officials expect to start again Jan 1, 2021 but are unable to continue negotiations at this time. Poor internet connections and language barriers amongst different officials also pose challenges. Nevertheless, the AfCFTA will act as a stimulus plan for countries in the region that lack economic or fiscal means to distribute a large relief package.

While economic growth has been steadily increasing at about 2.4% in 2019, the World Bank expects it to drop from anywhere between -2.1% to -5.1% in 2020. This means a loss of between $37 billion to $79 billion during 2020. The economic drops could cause less food security as food prices rise in many areas.

The losses come from a combination of sources. Shutdowns reduced exports and imports, and many African countries are reluctant to open borders. The shutdowns caused welfare losses of up to 14%. In addition, reduced tourism and commodity prices have taken their toll.

Connecting Countries

The AfCFTA will look to open up borders between African countries in order to encourage free trade once again. As a larger market, African countries can obtain necessary medical instruments and food resources at a cheaper price. The agreement will double or triple exports in Cameroon, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Ghana, Morocco and Tunisia. The countries will see the largest benefits, although almost all of the other countries will see growth.

The introduction of AfCFTA will shift the global marketplace significantly. China has been the center of manufacturing in recent years, but there may be a shift to Africa, as China’s investment in the signing of the AfCFTA has shown. Major powers, such as the U.S., European Union and India, have shown an increased interest in African foreign development as they see the rise in this cohesive market. Although COVID has taken its hit on the world, the AfCFTA might encourage a quick bounce back, lifting millions out of poverty and increasing jobs for many.

– Nitya Marimuthu
Photo: Flickr

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The 5 Fastest Growing Economies

Fastest Growing EconomiesIt is no secret that developed countries experience a markedly lower incidence of poverty than their developing counterparts. Furthermore, the poverty that these developed countries experience is often not the extreme variety that is endemic to developing regions of the world. If a country’s level of development can serve as a rough gauge of the magnitude of poverty experienced in the country, then it is worth exploring which economies are growing the fastest and developing at the most rapid pace. Below is the list of the five fastest-growing economies right now using the most recent data with the annual GDP growth rates from The World Bank.

Libya

Annual GDP growth rate of 26.7 percent (2017)

Situated on the Mediterranean Coast of Africa, the large country of Libya recorded a monumental economic GDP growth rate in 2017. The country’s economy is almost entirely driven by oil and natural gas exports, which have pushed the Libyan growth rate to this level. In 2017, oil production reached its peak for the last five years and, in combination with the rise in oil prices, spurred growth.

Since ousting of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the country has seen severe political instability with different military groups claiming different regions of the country. However, in the summer of 2018, at meetings led by French President Emmanuel Macron, the main two opposing factions in Libya agreed to hold elections in December. If successful, the elections could lead to stability in this volatile region and give the Libyan more financial and political security.

Guinea

Annual GDP growth rate of 5.8 percent (2017)

Located on Western Africa coast, Guinea’s economy is driven largely by exports of bauxite, high-grade iron ore, gold and diamonds. Furthermore, The CIA World Factbook states that Guinea has the potential to be a major exporter of hydroelectric power due to its river potential. Additionally, the untapped mineral deposits of the country are poised to attract international investment. Guinea has seen a recovery from the severe Ebola crisis, but it is still under the threat of political instability. However, the pieces for a more prosperous Guinea are beginning to fall into place.

Ethiopia

Annual GDP growth rate: 10.2 percent (2017)

Ethiopia, Africa’s 10th largest country, lies on the eastern side of the continent within the horn of Africa. Ethiopia also holds Africa’s second largest population and one of the most dynamic economies in the region. Ethiopia’s GDP consists mostly of the service sector, agriculture and industry, respectively. According to recent estimates, Ethiopia is poised to be the fastest growing economy in sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2018.

Furthermore, the sustained decade-long growth that country has experienced contributed to a reduction of poverty in the country, with the extreme poverty rate declining from 55.5 percent in 2000 to 33.5 percent in 2011. The government of Ethiopia has recently implemented the 2nd phase of its growth and transformation plan that aims to increase GDP growth and create jobs by a 20 percent expansion of the industrial sector of the economy.

Macau SAR, China

Annual GDP growth rate of 9.1 percent (2017)

Macau, a Special Administrative Region of China, is located off the southern coast of the Chinese mainland.  Macau’s economy is dominated by the services sector and there are little natural resources on the island. The economy of the region is driven primarily by gambling and tourism, and the area mainly serves as a playground to people from the Chinese mainland and to those from Hong Kong.

The economy of Macau is the third richest in the world in terms of GDP per person; however, this wealth does not translate to everyone in the country equally. Officially, the poverty rate is claimed at 2.3 percent, but the charitable organization, Caritas, estimates this percentage to be closer to 10 percent. Macau’s political system is also rampant with corruption, which unfortunately hampers the reduction of poverty.

Maldives

Annual GDP growth rate of 8.8 percent (2017)

The Maldives consists of over 1,190 bordering along the Indian Ocean. Only 188 of the islands are inhabited since the population is concentrated on the larger islands, including the 39 percent of the population living in the capital Malé. The economy of the Maldives is largely driven by tourism, shipping, and fishing. The most recent data on poverty was published in 2009 and it shows the poverty rate to be 15.7 percent improved from 23 percent in 2002.

These emerging economies represent some of the most promising regions on Earth because of their improvement on quality of life. Strong economies are the backbone of both political and social stability and ultimately greater well-being of people. These five countries look poised to fulfill these goals as the fastest growing economies.

– William Menchaca
Photo: Pixabay

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How the Media Misrepresents African Countries Today

Media Misrepresents African Countries
Despite still being associated with the reputation as the “Dark Continent” and branded the “wild jungle” by modern media, African countries still continue to remain invigorated by massive growth and economic potential. Yet, at the same time, the continent is still shrouded by a certain degree of allure and mystery. African nations remain an integral part of a rapidly and shifting wave of urbanization and globalization.

The African continent is home to over 1.2 billion individuals in 54 diverse countries; moreover, the population is estimated to grow to two billion over the next three decades or so.

Media Misrepresentation

The media misrepresents African countries in reference to the continent’s history and global assumptions about the continent. Media photography can act as a near-constant stream of visual propaganda as it predominantly showcases scenes of violence, devastation and starvation in regard to Africa. Unfortunately, media coverage of this nature may lead to the propagation of misinformation and stereotypes.

As a consequence of this focus, success stories, development projects and growth in nation-states are not given as much coverage as media misrepresentation of African countries. For example, of the aggregate 6-9 percent of African coverage in the international media, over 60 percent of the focus revolves around terrorism, famine, disease, political conflicts, disasters and other calamities. News coverage often doesn’t explore the true roots of social and economic issues in African countries.

The mainstream media occupies a significant part of international discourse and has the capacity to influence public opinion and perception about key global issues. As the media misrepresents African countries, seemingly misleading coverage is showcased which could be a possible impediment to promoting social progress and development in the region.

Personalization Bias and Common Misconceptions

A common cause of this impediment is a deficient coverage of the current affairs of African nations. This can be attributed to a term called ‘”Personalization bias” that has caused African media coverage to decline after a temporary spike in the year 2005.

One of the ways the media misrepresents African countries is in regard to women. Contrary to conventional beliefs that women are excluded from participating in numerous aspects of African labor and culture, women in African countries actually have the highest rate of participation in the labor force, standing at over 86 percent.

Additionally, regional growth among African countries was predicted to reach 2.6 percent in 2017, and the 2018 growth forecast is projected to reach 3.2 percent. The expanding economies of Angola, Nigeria and South Africa and the non- commodity intensive economies like Senegal, Djibouti and Tanzania contribute heavily to this forecast.

Furthermore, South Africa is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world and was recently added to the ranks of the BRICS alliance alongside countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China. In the future, this designation can lead to further foreign investment and economic opportunities for the country as well as a better international credit rating.

Paving the Way to a Better Future

Many countries in the region are now hoping to boost both public and private investment to improve the quality of infrastructure domestically.

Despite the obvious negative connotation and stigmas attached to poverty among African nations, the topic still remains one that should be addressed in a positive and pragmatic manner. With a higher proportion of success stories about this beautiful region reaching the news circulation, the international community may become more encouraged to get involved in addressing such underlying issues as poverty in the future.

– Shivani Ekkanath

Photo: Flickr