Posts

, ,

Positives from Brazil’s Election

Brazil’s Election
On October 30, 2022, Brazil’s presidential race between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and ‘Lula’ da Silva came to a close, with Lula narrowly edging out a victory with 50.9% of the vote. As news agencies, foreign leaders and millions of people all over Brazil accepted the results of Brazil’s election, one figure remained notably silent: President Bolsonaro. Though he did not expressly concede, Bolsonaro half-heartedly signaled that the transition process could begin. Prior to the election result, Bolsonaro made baseless claims of electoral fraud, stirring up unrest among his supporters. However, Brazil still expects a smooth presidential transition.

Post-Election Protests

Soon after the election, pro-Bolsonaro supporters began protesting against the election results and demanded military intervention. Protesters then blocked Brazil’s major highways with barricades, with some policemen encouraging the blockades. Breaking his silence on the Tuesday after the election, President Bolsonaro “tacitly backed the protestors,” saying the “current popular movements are the fruit of indignation and a feeling of injustice about how the electoral process played out,” the Guardian reports.

In Paranagua, a commercially critical city in Brazil’s south, the port authority said vehicles transporting grain exports could not access the port due to protester blockades. Other blockades of trade routes across the nation also impacted the transportation of agricultural exports such as soybean, corn, fertilizer and meat. This has ignited concerns for Brazil’s fragile economy.

In a relieving turn of events for Brazil’s democracy and economy, officials and everyday citizens have helped to restore order following the elections. Brazil’s highway police cleared more than 600 of the barricades within three days of the election, easing fears of shortages across the country. Local soccer fans, some inspired to defend their democracy and others wanting to get to their games, also played an important part in clearing roads.

Fragility in Brazil

Brazil’s stability is of paramount importance as the world economy threatens to enter a recession. Although world inflation could rise substantially through 2022, inflation in Brazil started to ease in August 2022. Food and supply shortages could significantly raise the price of everyday goods, sending the country’s economy into a tailspin. According to the World Bank, 28.4% of Brazil’s population lived in poverty in 2021 and a political struggle with economic damage could exacerbate poverty levels in the country.

A New Presidency Brings Hope

President Bolsonaro’s successor, Luis Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva, promised to prioritize poverty during his previous four years in office. During his presidency from 2003 to 2010, Lula created one of the most successful conditional cash transfer programs in modern history, Bolsa Familia. By making welfare conditional on health checkups and children’s school attendance, the program reduced extreme poverty by about 25%. This made Lula immensely popular among Brazil’s poor, with most of his support coming from the two poorest regions in Brazil: the north and northeast.

Although President Bolsonaro kept a modified version of Bolsa Familia under the name Auxilio Brasil, his efforts have seen significantly less success. In 2019, Bolsonaro reduced the number of program beneficiaries, precisely when impoverished citizens needed aid the most, during the COVID-19 pandemic. President-elect Lula put this issue at the forefront of his campaign and victory speech, promising an end to hunger and an increase in the minimum wage.

Looking Ahead

Brazil’s Defense Ministry also published its own report on November 9, 2022, which “did not point to the existence of any fraud or inconsistency in the electronic voting machines and 2022 electoral process.” The report did, however, bring to the forefront shortcomings in the electoral process and outlined suggestions to strengthen it.

The end of Brazil’s election drama comes as a comforting conclusion for the country, especially given the many issues it still has to contend with. Still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, a prolonged political struggle would stretch the economy to the limit while exacerbating tensions that the election has laid bare. Despite the temporary scare, the rapid response of Brazil’s institutions and people to the protests reassures outside observers of the country’s commitment to democracy. Due to his past successes, President Lula’s reign brings hope of reduced hunger, lower inequality and decreased poverty.

– Samuel Bowles
Photo: Wikipedia Commons

, ,

The Topic of Poverty in the Election in Brazil

Poverty in Brazil
On October 3, 2022, the first round of the Brazilian presidential election ended with no candidate having received a majority of the votes. Two radically opposed candidates will ultimately dispute the race: incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva. Although both have made promises to curb poverty amid Brazil’s economic woes, Bolsonaro’s rhetoric regarding the issue has noticeably increased in an attempt to garner votes ahead of the runoff election in Brazil on October 30, 2022. Through a mix of policy and speeches, Bolsonaro has sought to reinvent himself as the candidate for citizens living in poverty in Brazil, a role that Lula traditionally held.

About Auxilio Brasil

Bolsonaro’s primary poverty relief program, Auxilio Brasil, is actually a modified version of Lula’s famous Bolsa Familia Program. Auxilio Brasil gives the poorest 17 million Brazilian citizens the equivalent of $71 per month, provided parents ensure their children are vaccinated and in primary school. This was nearly double the amount that Bolsa Familia, the original version of the social welfare program that Lula created, gave Brazilians. In doing so, Bolsonaro can not only claim to represent the fight against poverty in Brazil but co-opted one of his adversary’s most significant works of public policy.

With the election in Brazil looming, Bolsonaro’s anti-poverty program has moved to the forefront of his campaign. After the contest between him and Lula went to a second round, the incumbent said that he would be moving Auxilio Brasil payments scheduled for the end of the month to the first two weeks of October. In addition, he temporarily increased the amount of money given by the program from R$400 to R$600 while giving citizens a gas voucher. Both Lula and impeached President Dilma Rousseff have called the payments a blatant manipulation of public funds, but the Supreme Court has upheld Bolsonaro’s decision.

Bolsonaro and Poverty in Brazil

Bolsonaro has also made poverty in Brazil a key point in his campaign speeches as he attempts to portray himself as a defender of Brazil’s poorest citizens. Visiting Duque de Caixas in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro spoke of the increase in funds under Auxilio Brasil, low gas prices and “no corruption… and high economic growth for the 12th week in a row.” His point, while on the surface praise of his good governance, is also a jab at Lula, who went to jail for his involvement in Brazil’s infamous ‘Lava Jato’ corruption scandal before the annulment of his sentence.

The Fight Between Bolsanaro and Lula

Presenting a strong economy is key to Bolsonaro’s handling of poverty in Brazil, as the economy has suffered greatly during his term. The President’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic left nearly 700,000 people dead, and temporary quarantines hampered the Brazilian economy. In 2020, Bolsonaro saw Brazil’s poverty rate increase from 4.5% to more than 12%, with nearly 9.6 million people sliding into poverty. Lula’s platform has taken advantage of this, promising a total overhaul of Brazil’s welfare system and a debt forgiveness program. Bolsonaro struck back, saying Lula’s program of giving “a barbecue to every Brazilian” was “simply impossible … a lie.”

Ultimately, it will be up to voters to decide whether Bolsonaro has made a convincing argument for why he is the best choice to tackle poverty in the election in Brazil on October 30. The country’s poorest region, the northeast, is the part of the country which voted for Bolsonaro the least, indicating campaigning on the topic of poverty is still vital if he wants to overcome Lula. Currently trailing in the polls, only time will tell if his election strategy will earn him a second term in office.

– Samuel Bowles
Photo: Unsplash