A recent book called The Second Machine Age has been heavily cited in discourse regarding the state of the economy and the future of work itself. What is the second machine age? The second machine age refers to the rise of automation of tasks once thought to be restricted to human ability. How will emerging technologies like artificial intelligence affect the poor?

Many famous people, such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, are worried about the future implications of artificial intelligence being malevolent towards humanity; however, the real problem may begin before artificial intelligence even reaches such a point. A more urgent and realistic scenario approaches — it does so at an uncertain rate, but it is projected to run down a well-worn path.

AI are quickly developing the ability to do tasks as well as and better than humans, albeit usually narrowly specialized tasks. Driving cars, manufacturing goods, finding patterns in data, even winning jeopardy – AI technology is assuredly forging ahead. If AI are going to be able to do these tasks, where does that leave the truck driver, the factory worker, the lawyer, accountants and others? These are millions of jobs that could be eliminated in rapid succession, potentially creating a situation of chronic high structural unemployment amongst people in their prime working years.

Where does this leave those without employment? And an even more unnerving question – where would this leave those who are already impoverished? The answer is complicated. A few things might happen at once. To begin with, some jobs are simply not worth replacing with robotic labor – for the time being, at least. Waiters and other jobs that require genuine human interaction at low wages may survive.

Others believe that AI can help usher in a so-called “post-scarcity” society. A post-scarcity society would be the result of a world where AI and technology as a whole would work for humans and produce more goods than people would need. Perhaps John Maynard Keynes’ predictions of fewer hours of work per worker will come true. Germany currently has a system in which they incentivize companies to cut workers’ hours, not jobs. This could save some jobs, but it may not be suitable for every type of occupation. The poor would make even less money with the jobs they do hold.

Some believe that the current situation of worldwide income inequality could become aggravated even further by AI-caused automation of jobs. Fewer jobs could lead to further concentration of wealth and an unhealthy economic balance. The prospect of less work to be done, fewer jobs and fewer ways to make money seems to bode poorly for fighting the cycles of poverty.

However, automation does happen for a reason; namely, automation of tasks is more productive and efficient than using human labor. Higher productivity means more goods and services for lower prices. Perhaps the post-scarcity world isn’t such as fantasy. Maybe automation could be a great thing for the poor in the very long term – if managed properly. For now, it seems as though the short-term effects may need to be addressed more seriously. Automation of a diverse range of professions will be a problem for the poor and for society as a whole.

– Martin Yim

Sources: RT, The Atlantic, New York Times
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